619
FXUS62 KCAE 260645
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
245 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SECOND KEY MESSAGE TO DISCUSS CONVECTION EXPECTED EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. PROLONGED HOT PATTERN EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND AND A SIGNAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL, INTENSE HEAT EVENT
BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
- 2. SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: PROLONGED HOT PATTERN EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND A SIGNAL FOR A MORE IMPACTFUL, INTENSE
HEAT EVENT BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO BE FAVORED FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH 500MB
HEIGHTS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO RISE TODAY, ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSE
TO SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS LIMITING HIGH
TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT INDICES EXPECTED BY THIS WEEKEND AS NAEFS MEAN INDICATES
HEIGHTS ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE. CONFIDENCE IN THE NEED FOR A HEAT
ADVISORY IS LOW, HOWEVER, AS THE AREA WILL BE SITUATED ON THE
EASTERN EDGE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH LEAVES IT MORE LIKELY FOR
SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS AND STORMS. EVEN WITHOUT ANY HEAT ADVISORIES, HOWEVER, MUCH
OF THE AREA WILL BE IN MAJOR HEATRISK THIS WEEKEND AND CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN IF SPENDING SIGNIFICANT TIME OUTDOORS DURING THE
HOTTEST PORTION OF THE DAY. BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS A SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MASS MOVING IN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
AS THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD, POTENTIAL FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
HEAT EVENT FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK. NOT ONLY IS THERE
STRONG AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL STRENGTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE WITH EC
AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATING 500MB HEIGHTS WILL BE AROUND 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER THAN NORMAL ALONG WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES OF 850MB TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 20C (70-80%) BUT
ALSO THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER RIDGE DEPICTED BY GLOBAL MODELS
AND ENSEMBLE WOULD FAVOR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA, LIMITING
CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. REMARKABLY HIGH
BLENDED PROBABILITIES THIS FAR OUT FOR THE PROBABILITY OF MAX
TEMPERATURES GREATER THAN 100F, GENERALLY 50-70%, EACH DAY
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. WITH THE 4TH OF JULY HOLIDAY WEEKEND,
HEAT ILLNESSES WOULD BE AT A GREATER RISK WITH A HIGHER AMOUNT
OF PEOPLE SPENDING TIME OUTDOORS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
HOT AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY, AT LEAST THROUGH MONDAY. FOR TODAY, A SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH SHOWERS ALREADY OBSERVED IN THE CSRA. WHILE
MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE AFTERNOON, FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES AND NOT
PARTICULARLY STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES. WITH RISING HEIGHTS
INTO SATURDAY, STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED
WITH SPC HREF MEMBERS FAVORING HIGHEST COVERAGE NORTH OF THE
AREA. WITH MORE ROBUST LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND A BIT OF
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, HOWEVER, POTENTIAL FOR
ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. A MARGINAL RISK FROM THE SPC IS IN PLACE FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FOR THIS POTENTIAL. WEAKNESSES IN THE
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE PRONOUNCED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING HIGHER POPS EACH DAY, STILL
GENERALLY SCATTERED DURING THE AFTERNOON, FAVORING THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. SLIGHTLY LOWER SEVERE
POTENTIAL SUNDAY, ALTHOUGH CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
BRIEF CIG RESTRICTIONS COULD BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CSRA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE.
THE MCV CONTINUES TO SPREAD SCT TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO
THE FA WITH A COUPLE STRAY SHOWERS ACTUALLY CONTINUING IN THE
CSRA, MAINLY NEAR DNL SO HAVE ADDED VCSH HERE FOR A COUPLE
HOURS. WINDS ARE ALREADY LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM BUT A
DEVELOPING 20 KT LLJ SHOULD AID IN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
FURTHER THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE MOST RECENT HRRR
RUNS, 00Z HREF, AND EVEN LAMP GUIDANCE NOW HINT AT A COUPLE
PATCHES OF STRATUS DEVELOPING NEAR THE CSRA AFTER 08-10Z, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS REMAINS TOO LOW (UNDER
30%). FOR NOW HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SCT STRATUS AT AGS/DNL/AIK.
ANY PATCHY STRATUS LIFTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP TO AROUND 7-9 KTS BY THE MID MORNING WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS AROUND 3500-5000 FT. A RETURN OF SCATTERED
DIURNAL SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED, THUS I HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30
GROUP AT EACH TAF SITE. SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND SCT TO BKN
MID LEVEL/DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAINING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SHOULD YIELD DIURNAL CONVECTION AND POSSIBLE
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS. BRIEF MORNING VSBY/CIG RESTRICTIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...DH
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