216
FXUS62 KCAE 290045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
845 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED DISCUSSION OF TEMPERATURES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES FOR
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. INCREASED THREAT OF IMPACTFUL HEAT THIS WEEK AND FOR THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: INCREASED THREAT OF IMPACTFUL HEAT THIS WEEK AND
FOR THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES COULD REACH 105 DEGREES ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON IN PORTIONS OF THE CSRA. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A HEAT
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED WITH SOME OF THE RECENT MOS GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S, WARMER THAN THE NBM.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE CSRA
WITH LOWER VALUES TO THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE IS LOWER. GIVEN THE MARGINAL HEAT INDEX VALUES AND
CHANCE OF CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON CONFIDENCE IN MEETING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA IS LOW.
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER INTO THE REGION DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, RESULTING IN SOMEWHAT LOWER HEAT INDEX
VALUES, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. BY
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
WILL START TO REALLY FLEX AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER, WITH 850-MB
TEMPERATURES APPROACHING OR EXCEEDING 20C. THIS PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT A CONTINUED WARMING TREND, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS STEADILY
CLIMBING AND SEVERAL LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY REACHING OR
EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HEAT INDICES
COULD SOAR CLOSE TO OR ABOVE 105 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE,
HEAT PRODUCTS MAY BE NEEDED SEVERAL DAYS IN A ROW. BE SURE TO
MAKE HEAT SAFETY PREPARATIONS NOW AND HAVE A PLAN TO MONITOR
CHILDREN, THE ELDERLY, PETS, AND ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE INDOOR
COOLING.
THE NHC MAINTAINS A 20% CHANCE FOR CYCLONE FORMATION OVER THE
NEXT 7 DAYS OFF THE SC COAST. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF
ON THIS QUITE A BIT WITH DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY LOW.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT....
A POTENT LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS AT THIS HOUR. CONDITIONS WILL
RAPIDLY IMPROVE AT OGB, WITH ACTIVITY MOVING OUTSIDE OF THEIR 10
MILE RADIUS SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR THIS EVENING
WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. PATCHY FOG IS AGAIN POSSIBLE
TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN DOES FALL. AS WE GET INTO THE
LATTER PORTION OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD, LOOK FOR WINDS TO SHIFT
OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP
AGAIN MONDAY BUT IS LESS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS
ALSO POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/CJR
AVIATION...7
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