596
FXUS62 KCAE 020055
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
855 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR THE 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING DURING THE
INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
- 2. INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE, PEAKING
DURING THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
STRONG UPPER RIDGE AFFECTING MUCH OF THE EASTERN US WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
THE ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGING WILL COMBINE WITH HIGHLY
ANOMALOUS 850MB TEMPERATURES (ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE) AT OR
ABOVE 20C TO PROVIDE HOT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS LOWERING ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
TOMORROW WITH PWATS FALLING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES AROUND 50TH
PERCENTILE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO
THE DRIER AIR ALOFT WHICH SHOULD MIX OUT DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA, ALTHOUGH
THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES.
PWATS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER EVEN FURTHER ON FRIDAY TO AROUND
30TH PERCENTILE, BUT THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE CAROLINAS AND MID-ATLANTIC AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
BE A BIT WARMER, YIELDING HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105 RANGE.
CONTINUED HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES OVER THE WEEKEND MAY NECESSITATE THE NEED FOR HEAT
RELATED PRODUCTS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HUMIDITY RISES
FURTHER DUE TO INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. WHILE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY LOWER EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAT PRODUCTS CONTINUES DUE TO INCREASED HUMIDITY.
CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION WHEN SPENDING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
TIME OUTDOORS AND MAKE SURE TO TAKE APPROPRIATE HEAT SAFETY
MEASURES DURING THE NEXT 7 DAYS. THE ELDERLY, YOUNG CHILDREN,
AND THOSE WITHOUT INDOOR COOLING WILL BE AT PARTICULAR RISK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STRONG UPPER RIDGE IMPACTING
THE EASTERN STATES WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND BREAK DOWN SUNDAY
INTO NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AND
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER WITH PWATS BACK UP AROUND 2 INCHES
SUPPORTING STRONGER INSTABILITY AND BETTER CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION. SOME OF THE ML SEVERE GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
INCREASED POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH TYPICAL EARLY MORNING
MIFG POSSIBLE AT AGS/OGB. A 15 TO 20 KT LLJ TONIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD FOG THREAT. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD OVER THE REGION LEADING TO HOT, DRY WEATHER THURSDAY WITH
LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE E AT 5 TO 7 KTS AFTER 16Z. A
FEW VFR CUMULUS MAY DEVELOP BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT
NO SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAINFALL UNLIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. BRIEF EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE RESTRICTIONS
START TO INCREASE SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...CJR
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