322
FXUS62 KCAE 051737
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
HEAT INDICES EXCEED 100F MULTIPLE DAYS.
- 2. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
WEEK AS HEAT INDICES EXCEED 100F MULTIPLE DAYS.
AS HAS BEEN ADVERTISED FOR THE LAST HANDFUL OF DAYS, THIS
PROLONGED PERIOD OF HEAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE WORK
WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID 90S FOR MUCH OF THE FA
AND ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN THE
COMING COUPLE HOURS. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ARE
BRINGING HEAT INDICES UP TO 105F. A COUPLE SPOTS NEARING
106-108F WILL BE POSSIBLE, BUT SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MAY
KEEP INDICES A BIT MORE IN CHECK. THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK IS ALREADY SETTING UP WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT OFFSHORE IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, KEEPING 850MB TEMPS NEAR 20C AND
GENERALLY KEEPING 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES ABOVE 1425M.
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S REMAIN LIKELY WITH LREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95F BETWEEN 40-60%
THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE INCREASING TOWARD 50-70% LATE THIS
WEEK. WHILE GENEROUS MIXING IS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON, 925MB
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP TOWARD 19-21C, MAINTAINING MOIST
CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STICKING TO THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. THIS COMBINATION BRINGS HIGH LREF PROBABILITIES (ABOVE
60-70%) FOR HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED 100F EACH DAY THIS WEEK. AS
HAS BEEN DISCUSSED, SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT IS
EXPECTED EACH DAY COMPLICATES THIS A BIT, BUT IF DRIER
CONDITIONS TREND FOR ANY ONE DAY, ADDITIONAL HEAT PRODUCTS COULD
BE NEEDED.
DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS HEAT, BE SURE TO CHECK ON
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE INDOOR COOLING AND TAKE HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS.
AS EXPECTED, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES ARE BEING ATTAINED EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON, LEADING TO A CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS BEEN QUICK
TO BECOME AGITATED AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COUPLE STORMS.
SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS MLCAPE SITS AROUND
2000 J/KG, DCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1000 J/KG, AND TEI VALUES
APPROACH 25C. IT IS ALSO WORTH NOTING THAT MICROBURST COMPOSITE
VALUES PER THE SPC MESOANALYSIS ARE BETWEEN 3-5 ACROSS THE FA.
OVERALL, THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS CONVECTION WILL BE ISOLATED
STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE STORMS WITH THE RISK OF DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS FROM PRECIP-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS.
A SIMILAR STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 2-4 DAYS, BUT WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THE FORM OF PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVE OVER THE FA AS WE REMAINED WEDGED
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE COULD AID IN INITIATION.
THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION KEEPS MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG
IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH GENEROUS MIXING SHOULD YIELD
IMPRESSIVE DCAPE VALUES. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED, DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE LATEST CSU ML PROBABILITIES
MAINTAIN THIS ELEVATED RISK. THE MOST RECENT NBM RUN AND GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY "DRIER" AIR (PWAT'S NEAR 1.60-1.80") COULD
PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDWEEK, POSSIBLY LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS. OVERALL, EXPECT A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OR TWO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT
WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THAT POINT.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LEAD TO BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR EVEN
IFR RESTRICTIONS IN HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY WINDS BETWEEN 20-30 KNOTS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
EXPECTED COVERAGE, WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP AT ALL SITES FOR
RESTRICTIONS FROM 18Z-22Z, AND ADJUST AS NECESSARY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.
OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION, EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS WITH CU AND
STRATO-CU, ALONG WITH CIRRUS FROM DECAYING THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE MORE OUT OF THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST AT
5-10 KNOTS, THEN RETURNING TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR MONDAY, SHOULD SEE WINDS PICK UP ONCE AGAIN OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST BY MID-MORNING, WITH SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-9 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...73
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