711
FXUS62 KCAE 060047
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
847 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE THIS WEEK AS
HEAT INDICES EXCEED 100F MULTIPLE DAYS.
- 2. CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE THIS
WEEK AS HEAT INDICES EXCEED 100F MULTIPLE DAYS.
THE STAGE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK IS ALREADY SETTING UP
WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT OFFSHORE IN
RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES TOWARD THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW WARM/MOIST ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHWEST, KEEPING
850MB TEMPS NEAR 20C AND GENERALLY KEEPING 1000-850MB THICKNESS
VALUES ABOVE 1425M. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S REMAIN
LIKELY WITH LREF PROBABILITIES FOR MAX TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95F
BETWEEN 40-60% THROUGH THE MIDWEEK BEFORE INCREASING TOWARD
50-70% LATE THIS WEEK. WHILE GENEROUS MIXING IS EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON, 925MB DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO CREEP TOWARD 19-21C,
MAINTAINING MOIST CONDITIONS WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS STICKING TO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THIS COMBINATION BRINGS HIGH LREF
PROBABILITIES (ABOVE 60-70%) FOR HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED 100F
EACH DAY THIS WEEK. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED, SCATTERED DIURNAL
CONVECTION THAT IS EXPECTED EACH DAY COMPLICATES THIS A BIT, BUT
IF DRIER CONDITIONS TREND FOR ANY ONE DAY, ADDITIONAL HEAT
PRODUCTS COULD BE NEEDED.
DUE TO THE PROLONGED NATURE OF THIS HEAT, BE SURE TO CHECK ON
THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE INDOOR COOLING AND TAKE HEAT SAFETY
PRECAUTIONS THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: CHANCES FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THE WORK WEEK. STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THE NEXT COUPLE AFTERNOONS.
A SIMILAR STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED THE
NEXT 2-4 DAYS, BUT WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING IN THE FORM OF PIECES
OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY THAT MOVE OVER THE FA AS WE REMAINED WEDGED
BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE UPPER RIDGE COULD AID IN INITIATION.
THE LATEST EC ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION KEEPS MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG
IN THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY, AND HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE CONTENT COMBINED WITH GENEROUS MIXING SHOULD YIELD
IMPRESSIVE DCAPE VALUES. AS HAS BEEN DISCUSSED, DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS IN THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE THE MAIN RISK
CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT AND THE LATEST CSU ML PROBABILITIES
MAINTAIN THIS ELEVATED RISK. THE MOST RECENT NBM RUN AND GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW SLIGHTLY "DRIER" AIR (PWAT'S NEAR 1.60-1.80") COULD
PUSH INTO THE REGION DURING THE MIDWEEK, POSSIBLY LIMITING
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE A BIT, BUT THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS. OVERALL, EXPECT A COUPLE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OR TWO THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS ACROSS THE AREA WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO THE MID TO LATE WEEK, BUT
WITH A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY AT THAT POINT.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS MONDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THE TERMINALS AS CONVECTION HAS
SHIFTED NORTH OF THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE. EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TOMORROW, ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL LIKELY BE MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SO HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA AT ALL TERMINALS EXPECT
OGB, WHERE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DAILY RAIN CHANCES AND POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...96
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