307
FXUS62 KCAE 081754
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
154 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO KEY MESSAGE, HOT AND MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THURSDAY WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 105 DEGREES. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH LIMITED
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THURSDAY.
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING
FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LIMITED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND ON THURSDAY.
HIGHER CHANCES OF RAIN RETURN THIS WEEKEND WITH A SLOW MOVING FRONT.
LATEST 500MB ANALYSIS SHOWS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS CENTERED
ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE,
COMBINED WITH STABLE CONDITIONS IN THE 700-500MB LAYER,
SUGGESTS THAT ANY THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE. ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES FORM SHOULD
STRUGGLE TO HAVE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT THEREFORE THE
THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LOW BUT NON-ZERO
GIVEN THE AMPLE CAPE AND DCAPE AVAILABLE. BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE POP FORECAST. IN
TERMS OF THE HEAT THREAT FOR TODAY, MAXT WAS BUMPED DOWN BY A
FEW DEGREES IN MOST SPOTS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS IN THE
OBSERVATIONS, BUT VALUES SHOULD STILL TOP OUT IN THE MID-90S
WITH A FEW SPOTS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD TOMORROW AND LIFT NORTHWARD AROUND THE
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. AS IT DOES, THE LATEST GUIDANCE STRETCHES
IT OUT SOME. SO, WHILE THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE A BIT
HIGHER TOMORROW DUE TO THIS, THEY DO REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE (UP
TO ~20%) SUGGESTING SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO TODAY. THE
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTS A HIGHER RISK FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES. AN
APPROACHING FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGS A GREATER CHANCE FOR
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO THE REGION. FLOW ALOFT IS
ALSO FORECAST TO BECOME MORE ZONAL, WHICH COULD LEAD TO THE
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION CHANCES LINGERING INTO NEXT
WEEK.
AS HAS BEEN EMPHASIZED OVER THE PAST WEEK, THE ONGOING HEAT
REMAINS A CONCERN. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN 3-6
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH HEAT INDICES
REACHING THE LOW TO MID-100S. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F), SO NO HEAT ADVISORIES ARE
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. CONTINUE TO PRACTICE HEAT SAFETY,
ESPECIALLY WITH PROLONGED HEAT EXPECTED TO PERSIST. PLEASE
REMAIN DILIGENT IF YOU HAVE OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
DEVELOPING AROUND 5KFT THIS AFTERNOON. LATEST SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS SHOWS THESE CLOUDS ARE REMAINING FLAT AS THE UPPER
RIDGE IS OVER THE AREA WITH LIMITED UPSCALE GROWTH EXPECTED
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE,
PROBABILITY REMAINS AROUND 10 PERCENT OR LESS FOR IMPACTS TO THE
TERMINALS WITH UPPER RIDGING OVER THE AREA. WESTERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KNOTS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING CUMULUS CLOUDS.
BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW WITH
CONVECTION NOT EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...96
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