610
FXUS62 KCAE 100042
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
842 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1 TO DISCUSS DIMINISHING CONVECTION TONIGHT
AND LIGHT RAIN COMING INTO THE CSRA, THEN EDITED WORDING TO
FOCUS TO TOMORROW. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
TOMORROW.
- 2. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY LIKELY COOLER TEMPS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TOMORROW WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN TOMORROW.
THE ISOLATED STORMS WE SAW THIS AFTERNOON HAVE GENERALLY
DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, A FEW STORMS ARE
APPROACHING THE WESTERN MIDLANDS AT THIS TIME, BUT EXPECT THOSE
TO FIZZLE OUT AS THE SUN CONTINUES TO SET. A BROADER AREA OF
LIGHT RAIN IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE CSRA AT THIS TIME. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION OF HOW FAR EAST THIS AREA MAKES IT AND HOW LONG IT
TAKES FOR IT TO DIMINISHING. FOR NOW, UPPED THE POPS IN THE CSRA
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS RAIN. AFTER THIS ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN, THE
REST OF THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY.
THE MID TO UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS PUSHED OFF SHORE THIS EVENING AS
AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE GULF COAST STATES. HOWEVER,
EXPECT HOT AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AGAIN ON FRIDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES AND HEAT
INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 100 AND 105 DEGREES. WHILE BELOW OUR HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, CONTINUE TO EXERCISE CAUTION IF SPENDING AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME OUTDOORS DURING PEAK HEATING.
IN TERMS OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TOMORROW, CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO TODAY. THE SPC HAS PUT THE FORECAST
AREA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW,
CITING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY SEVERE HAZARD. THIS
IS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE ON MODELED
SOUNDINGS IN ADDITION TO SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR STRONGER STORMS TO
DEVELOP.
KEY MESSAGE 2: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRINGS HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
WEEKEND FOLLOWED BY INCREASINGLY LIKELY COOLER TEMPS.
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO A
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH APPROACH
THE AREA, MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAN
BE ANTICIPATED FOR THE WEEKEND. THIS ACTIVITY COULD LINGER INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE FRONT
STALLS OUT NEAR THE AREA. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES, IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT WE'LL SEE COOLER
TEMPERATURES. THE NBM INTERQUARTILE RANGE (IQR) ON MONDAY
RANGES FROM THE LOW TO MID 80S TO AROUND 90F FOR THE AREA. GIVEN
THE RECENT HOT WEATHER, THE NBM TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL LIKELY HAVE A WARM BIAS. SO, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE
END UP TOWARD THE COOLER END OF THE IQR.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
EVENING WITH NO FURTHER RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED AT ANY TAF SITES;
SHOWERS-STORMS REMAIN CONFINED TO CENTRAL GA AND COASTAL SC.
WINDS HAVE CONSEQUENTLY WEAKENED TO LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AS
A RESULT. MORE OF THE SAME IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH BREEZY
WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS-STORMS DEVELOPING BY
MID-AFTERNOON; ONLY RUNNING A PROB30 FOR NOW GIVEN LOW
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/29
AVIATION...42
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