706
FXUS62 KCAE 111514
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1114 AM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT.
- 2. HOT, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY ASSOCIATED WITH
A FRONT.
SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH
COVERAGE SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MORE ZONAL IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING
AROUND A LARGER SCALE TROUGH. WEAKER SHORTWAVES ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE OVER THE AREA TODAY, SPARKING THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IN
ADDITION, PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE WITH THE SPC 00Z HREF
MEAN STILL SHOWING VALUES GREATER THAN 2 INCHES OVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STRONG
DESTABILIZATION ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY AND WHILE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE MAY SOMEWHAT LIMIT DCAPE, STRONG LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AND TEI APPROACHING 30 WILL LEAD TO STRONG TO SEVERE WET
MICROBURST POTENTIAL. SPC UPGRADED THE AREA TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TODAY, AT LEAST FOR MUCH OF OUR SC COUNTIES FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BLENDED
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS NEAR THE FRONT
EACH DAY, FAVORING THE AFTERNOONS WHERE MODERATE TO STRONG
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER
IS NOT ANTICIPATED, ESPECIALLY MONDAY WHERE INSTABILITY MAY
STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP, A SCATTERED STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC
SUNDAY. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE EFFICIENT RAIN RATES AS
EVIDENCED BY THE LATEST FORECAST SOUNDING. ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO BE FAST ENOUGH TO PREVENT MAJOR FLOODING
CONCERNS, IT WILL BE WORTH MONITORING FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
TRAINING AS THE FLOW LOOKS TO BE GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT. ENSEMBLE MEANS THEN FAVOR DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH
COOLER CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT LATE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
HOT, HUMID, AND BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH TODAY BEING THE
WARMEST OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE INCREASED CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON MAY LIMIT THE EXTENT OF OUR HIGH
TEMPERATURE AND HEAT INDEX VALUES, BUT EXPECT TRIPLE DIGIT HEAT
INDICES FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S AND DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE 70S. BLENDED GUIDANCE IQR CONTINUES TO
FAVOR LOWER TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT
AND WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND CONVECTION EACH DAY. GIVEN THE RECENT
HOT WEATHER, THE NBM TAKES THAT INTO ACCOUNT AND WILL LIKELY
HAVE A WARM BIAS. SO, I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE END UP
TOWARD THE COOLER END OF THE IQR EARLY IN THE WEEK AHEAD. THIS
AIR MASS IS EXPECTED BE VERY HUMID; HOWEVER, WITH BLENDED DEW
POINTS CONTINUING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, HOWEVER AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION COULD RESULT IN
TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST BY MID-MORNING, GUSTING
UPWARDS OF AROUND 20KT AT TIMES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
CONDITIONS WILL BE TYPICAL FOR MID-SUMMER, WITH AN EXTENSIVE
CUMULUS FIELD DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH SCATTERED
CONVECTION. HAVE INCLUDED A PROB30 GROUP AT ALL TERMINALS FROM
19-24Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AND
ACCOMPANYING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29/96
AVIATION...JAQ
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