235
FXUS62 KCAE 111641
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1241 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AREA IS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW.
INCLUDED MESOANALYSIS FOR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST STORMS, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
- 2. HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE IN
STRONGEST STORMS, ESPECIALLY TODAY AND TOMORROW.
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE WITH A MORE ZONAL PATTERN
DEVELOPING ALOFT. THIS HAS LED TO SUBTLE SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH LINGERING ABOVE AVERAGE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGHLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED TODAY WITH RAP ANALYSIS INDICATING
SBCAPE IS ALREADY EXCEEDING 3000 J/KG. WITH GOES SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWING A LINGERING BOUNDARY IN THE NW PORTION OF THE
AREA FROM LINGERING CONVECTION EARLIER THIS MORNING, EXPECT
SUFFICIENT FORCING TO LEAD TO SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUING
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE SHEAR REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK,
GENERALLY WEAK TO MODERATE CLOUD LAYER FLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT
DOES SUPPORT WET MICROBURSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LOW
LEVEL LAPSE RATES EXCEEDING 8 C/KM AND TEI ABOVE 25C. DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM SPC TODAY.
TOMORROW, AN UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE AREA WITH A SOMEWHAT
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED WITH STRONG DESTABILIZATION AND
POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS ONCE AGAIN WITH A SLIGHT RISK
CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. DEPENDING ON THE
EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS, WE MAY
NEED TO MONITOR SOME SPOTS FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING,
ALTHOUGH STORM MOTION SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF ANY TRAINING.
MONDAY, A COLD FRONT DROPS TOWARDS THE FORECAST AREA, PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR CONVECTION, ALTHOUGH LINGERING STORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING MAY PREVENT AS SIGNIFICANT
DESTABILIZATION WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. WILL NEED TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR A POTENTIAL FLASH FLOOD THREAT, KEEPING IN
MIND THIS WILL DEPEND SIGNIFICANT ON ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FROM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. IN GENERAL, ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE TRENDED
MUCH SLOWER WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF DRY AIR INTO THE AREA NEXT
WEEK AND CONDITIONS MAY REMAIN UNSETTLED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE MEANS KEEPING PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WITH ONLY A SOMEWHAT MARGINAL DECREASE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2: HOT AND HUMID THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH
MAX TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHED EARLY AFTERNOON FOR MANY
LOCATIONS BEFORE THE ONSET OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. HEAT
INDICES LIKELY STILL RISING INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH ANY DECREASE IN TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY THE INCREASE
IN DEW POINTS. BLENDED GUIDANCE HAS CREEPED UP SLIGHTLY IN THE
LAST SEVERAL RUNS ON TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN THE FRONT LINGERING NEAR THE AREA,
PREVENTING A SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR MASS FROM MOVING IN WITH A
DECENT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. STILL
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WHICH
FEELS LIKE A WIN. THIS WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED, HOWEVER, AS
THE AIR MASS LIKELY RECOVERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON.
WE HAVE HAD AN EARLY START TO THE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. A
REMNANT SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING OUT OF THE APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE
COASTAL PLAIN OF THE CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS RICH AND
THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, SO WE ARE EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INITIATING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
AREA TAF SITES WILL BE PRONE TO THIS BUT IT IS UNCERTAIN WHO WILL
GET WHAT AND WHEN. THE RESULT IS A PREVAILING VCTS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A PROB30 FOR IMPACTFUL STORMS. MAY NEED A TEMPO GROUP (OR A
BRIEF PREVAILING GROUP) IF STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIRECTLY IMPACT A
SITE. GUSTS OF 30-40 KNOTS (OR HIGHER) ARE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION
TODAY AS WELL AS VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 1SM AND 2SM.
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY WANE BETWEEN 22Z AND 02Z THIS EVENING AS WE
EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE PRETTY WELL WORKED OVER BY THAT POINT.
LIGHT WINDS AND CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
NIGHT, WITH CEILINGS LIKELY BETWEEN 15KFT AND 20KFT THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON (LIKELY JUST AFTER THIS PERIOD ENDS), WITH WIDESPREAD
CUMULUS AGAIN DEVELOPING BY 15Z SUNDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...INCREASING CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CRL
AVIATION...GPL
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