020
FXUS62 KCAE 130023
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
823 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADJUSTED WORDING IN KEY MESSAGE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED
FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LINGERING
MOISTURE LEADING TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LINGERING
MOISTURE LEADING TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON STORMS
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
SCATTERED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE CLUSTERS CONTINUE MAINLY
SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING AS PWATS SIT BETWEEN
2-2.20" ACROSS THE FA. INSTABILITY HAS WANED A BIT WITH THE LOSS
OF HEATING, BUT MLCAPE VALUES STILL SIT AROUND 1500 J/KG. DCAPE
VALUES HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED WITH THE MORE STABLE LOW LEVEL
PROFILES AS NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE
FA. OVERALL, AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE
COMING 1-2 HOURS, BUT THIS SHOULD DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
ANY CONVECTION LIKELY BECOMES A BIT MORE ELEVATED. TONIGHT,
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS COULD
STILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE MID LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE FRONT
CONTINUE TO WORK INTO THE REGION, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.
ON MONDAY, THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH AND THE MID
LEVEL LOW SHOULD DROP INTO THE REGION AS HIRES GUIDANCE
INDICATES PWAT'S APPROACH 2.2 INCHES. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES
INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY, KEEPING TEMPERATURES A
BIT COOLER AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT
DESTABILIZATION. THIS BRINGS A LOWER RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WITH MORE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS, BUT A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SLIGHTLY INCREASED. THE
BIGGER RISK MONDAY MAY BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL RISK AS SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA DURING
THE DAY WITH EFFICIENT RAIN RATES, SIMILAR TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN SUNDAY IN THIS MOIST AIRMASS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE IN AREAS HIGHLIGHTED TODAY ALONG WITH AREAS THAT
RECEIVED ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TODAY.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AND ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO BRING IN A
DRIER AIR MASS WITH PWATS GENERALLY GREATER THAN A STANDARD
DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH DRIER AIR LIKELY STARTS TO SNEAK INTO THE
NORTHERN AREA ON WEDNESDAY. COOLER AIR MASS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE EARLY THIS WEEK WITH A RECOVERY EXPECTED TO NORMAL
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK AS THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS BEGINS
TO SHIFT EASTWARD.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, MAINLY NEAR OGB,
THIS EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND MVFR
CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS THIS
EVENING, BRINGING VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO OGB. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE COMING 1-2 HOURS BEFORE A PROB30 THEN IS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE TERMINALS INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO THE MID
LEVEL LOW NEARING THE REGION, POSSIBLY SPARKING ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. WINDS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT QUITE VARIABLE WITH THE
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE FA. VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
THIS ACTIVITY ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL AROUND 06-09Z, WHEN
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BEHIND A WEAK FRONT AND RICH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE ACT TO BRING PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE NBM REMAINS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE IN TIMING (~06Z),
BUT THE HRRR PUSHES THE ONSET A BIT LATER (~08-10Z), SO THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT TIMING. THESE CEILINGS
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY LIFTING TO
VFR AFTER 15-17Z WITH A BKN CUMULUS DECK LIKELY REMAINING. WINDS
SHOULD PICK UP OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AROUND 5-7 KTS DURING THE
LATE MORNING AS WELL. DURING THE AFTERNOON, ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED WHERE
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/96
AVIATION...DH/PL
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