143
FXUS62 KCAE 140213
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1013 PM EDT MON JUL 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR AREAL AND/OR FLASH FLOODING.
LINGERING MOISTURE LEADING TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD
AFTERNOON STORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON, CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT. A
COUPLE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
WITH ISOLATED SPOTS OF FLASH FLOODING. LINGERING MOISTURE
LEADING TO SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON STORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
A SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE I-20 CORRIDOR
AND CSRA. THE HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CAME TO FRUITION FOR
SEVERAL AREAS, WITH MULTIPLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ISSUED IN THE
CSRA. RADAR PRECIP ESTIMATES AND RAIN GAUGE MEASUREMENTS
INDICATED BETWEEN 1-4" AND IN A FEW SPOTS UP TO 4.5" OF RAINFALL
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAIN RATES (>5" PER HOUR AT TIMES)!
AS OF THIS WRITING, ACTIVITY HAS MAINLY TRANSITIONED AWAY FROM
ANY SEVERE THREAT, BUT WITH ONGOING SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WE CONTINUE TO BE DILIGENT WATCHING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. CAM GUIDANCE HAS DONE FAIRLY WELL THUS FAR, SO WE NOTE
THE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE COLUMBIA AREA TO GET IN ON SOME OF THE
RAINFALL HERE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS STORMS SPREAD
SOUTH AND WEST ALONG THE I-20 CORRIDOR. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE
BEEN A BIT MORE INDICATIVE OF DEVELOPMENT TODAY, SO WE ARE
WATCHING ANY COLLISIONS CLOSELY. AFTER THAT, GUIDANCE GENERALLY
HAS ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WRAPPING UP AROUND 07Z TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS ENSEMBLE METEOGRAMS INDICATE PWAT'S
NEAR TO OVER 2" REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF WEDNESDAY. AS THE MID LEVEL LOW SLOWLY RETROGRADES, DRIER AIR
MAY BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE PEE DEE AND NORTHERN MIDLANDS
WEDNESDAY, BRINGING LOWER RAIN CHANCES HERE. COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY WARMING DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK BACK
TO NEAR NORMAL. TYPICAL DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES COULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THERE IS
GENEROUS SPREAD IN LREF CLUSTER ANALYSIS AT THIS POINT.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A MIX OF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS CAUSING MVFR AND IFR
RESTRICTIONS. WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CEILING RESTRICTIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF.
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE NEXT
TAF ISSUANCE WITH OCCASIONAL TSRA. HEAVY RAIN AND REDUCED
CIGS/VSBYS ARE LIKELY. WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OR
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY, THOUGH SOME THUNDERSTORM GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 20 KTS BRIEFLY. GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF RAIN OVER THE
LAST 6 HOURS PLUS AN ALREADY MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS IN PLACE,
GUIDANCE IS QUITE AGGRESSIVE WITH IFR CIGS AT ALL THE TAF SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THIS MAKES SENSE FROM A PATTERN
RECOGNITION STANDPOINT AND HAVE THE FORECAST REFLECTING SUCH.
EXPECTING THAT MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL HOLD ON INTO THE MIDDAY ON
TUESDAY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5-8 KTS PERSISTING. A FEW
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS, AGS/DNL/OBG IN PARTICULAR. LESS CONFIDENCE AT
CAE/CUB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A GOOD CHANCE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS IS EXPECTED
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC/42
AVIATION...EC/PL
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