970
FXUS62 KCAE 150522
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
122 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TONIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
FOR WEDNESDAY AS TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS RAIN CHANCES BECOME
MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND RETURNING
DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
CHANCES BECOME MORE SPOTTY WEDNESDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
RETURNING DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED FOR THE LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT WITH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF A STUBBORN FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RH VALUES ARE ALREADY IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S IN SOME SPOTS, AND
SKIES ARE STARTING TO CLEAR FROM THE NORTH. SURFACE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AS WELL, HELPING CREATE A
FAVORABLE SETUP, ESPECIALLY NEAR BODIES OF WATER.
AS WE MOVE INTO WEDNESDAY, RAIN CHANCES DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOUTHERN LOCALES.
THE PATTERNS IS A BIT ODD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS LOW PRESSURE
RETROGRADES WEST AWAY FROM THE REGION AND FLOW THROUGH THE
COLUMN BECOMES PREDOMINATELY EASTERLY. THIS WILL REINFORCE OUR
HIGH PWAT VALUES AT 1.7-2" OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT THE LACK
OF FORCING WILL LIMIT WIDESPREAD CONVECTION. AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, TEMPERATURES WILL
RISE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. BY THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLES AND
GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING FROM
THE CENTRAL CONUS, TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. LOW LEVEL FLOW
RETURNS TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD INDUCE A COUPLE
MORE DEGREES OF WARMING. THERE IS ALSO A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION AS A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW AND PROVIDE A BIT MORE OF A TRIGGER AND SUPPORT
FOR STORMS.
AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SHOWERS MOVE OUT, PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK....
RADAR TONIGHT SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, MAINLY NEAR AGS/DNL/AIK. SHOWERS HAVE TAPERED OFF
AROUND CAE/CUB BUT WILL MAINTAIN VCSH THERE FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR
TWO IN CASE SOMETHING NEW POPS UP. THE MAIN STORY FOR TONIGHT IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG. GUIDANCE IS LEANING TO
THE LATTER POSSIBILITY AND RH VALUES ARE NEAR 100 PERCENT AT
OGB/AGS/DNL/AIK SUGGESTING FOG MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AT THESE TERMINALS IN PARTICULAR. ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG LIFT, A FAIRLY NICE DAY IS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS DRIER
AIR PUSHES IN AND CONFINES THE SHOWERS MOSTLY TO GEORGIA.
AGS/DNL WILL PROBABLY HAVE A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO AROUND BUT
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IS UNLIKELY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THE THREAT FOR RESTRICTIONS EASES
FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AS CONDITIONS
BEGIN TO DRY OUT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...EC
AVIATION...7
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page