330
FXUS62 KCAE 192358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM STILL POSSIBLE THIS EVENING IN THE
NORTHERN MIDLANDS, BUT PROBABILITIES HAVE LOWERED. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR.
- 2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ISOLATED STRONGER STORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF
THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE DESPITE THE
IMPINGING SHORTWAVE AND INCREASED SURFACE TROUGHING/CONVERGENCE
IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. WV IMAGERY REVEALS THE POCKET OF DRIER
MID-LEVEL AIR REMAINS IN PLACE, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20, WITH A
BIT MORE MOISTURE NORTH OF HERE. A RECENT KCHS ACARS SOUNDING
JUST BEFORE 22Z REVEALED SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR IN THE ~750-550MB
LAYER AND WHEN LOOKING AT A 0HR BUFKIT HRRR SOUNDING FROM 22Z
NEAR HERE, IT REVEALED DEWPOINTS IN THIS COLUMN A COUPLE
DEGREES MOISTURE THAN THAT SEEN IN THE ACARS SOUNDING. IT
APPEARS SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS UNDERPLAYED THE ROLE/STRENGTH OF
THIS DRY AIR WHICH HAS LIKELY KEPT MEANINGFUL VERTICAL GROWTH
AT BAY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVEN NOW. WITH THAT SAID, ENHANCED
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS SEEN IN AN AREA AROUND NEWBERRY-
FAIRFIELD-LANCASTER-CHESTERFIELD COUNTIES WITH AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE UPSTATE. MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500
J/KG WITH AROUND 20-30 KTS OF CLOUD LAYER SHEAR MAINTAINS A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IF A STORM/CLUSTER CAN ESTABLISH ITSELF
FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THREAT IN THE COMING 1-3 HOURS.
THIS LOWER END THREAT IN THE AFOREMENTIONED AREA IS ALSO
SUPPORTED IN THE 21-23Z WOFS RUNS. OVERALL, THE SEVERE THREAT
IS DIMINISHING BUT CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH SOME NEW CONVECTION
ATTEMPTING TO GET GOING NEAR THIS SINKING OUTFLOW. AFTER THIS,
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE MONDAY
AND TUESDAY, WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED MID TO
LATE WEEK.
DEEPER MOISTURE FROM TD TWO APPEARS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY, HOWEVER WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND A SURFACE
TROUGH POSITIONED JUST NORTH OF THE AREA COULD BE A TRIGGER FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STILL UP AROUND 2 INCHES.
COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE SYNOPTIC FORCING IS A BIT STRONGER. MODERATE
TO STRONG INSTABILITY WILL STILL BE IN PLACE, WITH AN
ENVIRONMENT NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY, SO THERE WILL BE A
THREAT OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPEARS TO RETREAT FARTHER NORTHWARD ON
TUESDAY, WITH THE BULK OF ANY SHORT WAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA AS WELL. THIS
SHOULD LIMIT SYNOPTIC FORCING ACROSS THE AREA, WITH MAINLY
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION EXPECTED.
FAIRLY GOOD SUPPORT FROM THE ENSEMBLES AND GLOBAL MODELS IN THE
PATTERN BECOMING MORE ACTIVE MID TO LATE WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH DIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN US, WITH A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES
CROSSING THE AREA WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MEANWHILE AT
THE SURFACE, WHILE THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS, A COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE AREA SOMETIME LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY, POSSIBLY LINGERING NEARBY INTO THE WEEKEND. DEEP
MOISTURE, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UPWARDS OF 2.00-2.25
INCHES BASED ON THE BLEND, ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC LIFT WILL SUPPORT
HIGHER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT OUTSIDE OF A PASSING
SHOWER....
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN LIMITED NEAR THE TERMINALS TODAY.
EVENING RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ONE LIGHT SHOWER PASSING BETWEEN
AGS/DNL AND AIK BUT IT APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING. REMOVED ANY
MENTION OF RESTRICTIONS WITH THIS UPDATE AND WILL AMEND IF
ANYTHING MANAGES TO DEVELOP SIGNIFICANTLY NEAR THE TERMINALS.
WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO
RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH TYPICAL SCT CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD BE LOW AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO DID NOT ADD ANY CHANCES TO THE TAFS
WITH THIS UPDATE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS FROM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES WITH THE THREAT INCREASING
LATER IN THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/JAQ
AVIATION...7
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