594
FXUS62 KCAE 231728
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
128 PM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD SLIGHTLY LOWER RAINFALL TOTALS
THROUGH SATURDAY, ALONG WITH A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT APPROACHES.
UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: RAIN CHANCES INCREASE AS A SLOW-MOVING FRONT
APPROACHES. UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK.
THE ANTICIPATED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG
SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY STALLING NEAR OR OVER THE FA. A MODEST
MOISTURE FETCH FROM TS BERTHA WELL TO OUR SW WILL HELP ADVECT
TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. OVERALL, THIS SLOW-MOVING
PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY.
PWATS ARE CURRENTLY OVER 2" AMID DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW, WITH
RELATIVELY SKINNY CAPE PROFILES, AND DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS.
MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT, FAVORING
TRAINING CONVECTION AND HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
HI-RES GUIDANCE DEPICTS MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS AND CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES WITHIN THESE BANDS COULD QUICKLY BOOST STORM-TOTAL
AMOUNTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER MORE ORGANIZED ROUND OF STORMS DEVELOPS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
SHIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL/EASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
GIVEN THE EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION AND TROPICAL
ENVIRONMENT, RAINFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TO VARY CONSIDERABLY
OVER RELATIVELY SHORT DISTANCES. THE 3 DAY RAINFALL FORECAST
FOCUSES THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE
REGION (LIKELY TODAY INTO TONIGHT). FURTHER SOUTH, THE RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED TO BE MORE INTERMITTENT WITH LOWER AMOUNTS.
REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER 90S AND POTENTIALLY REMAINING IN THE UPPER 80S WHERE
RAINFALL OCCURS. A MORE TYPICAL LATE-JULY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING BACK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WITH DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING WITH CONVECTION MAINLY STAYING
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. INCREASING CHANCES OF RESTRICTIONS
TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AND PERIODS OF RAIN
MOVING IN.
A BLANKET OF HIGHER CLOUDS HAS BEEN OVER THE REGION TODAY
HELPING TO KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE MORE STABLE AND RESULTING IN
LESS CUMULUS THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY. EXPECT VFR CUMULUS
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON BUT HIGHER CLOUDS PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE RAIN HAS REMAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
TERMINALS AND EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO UNTIL AFTER 21-22Z WHEN SOME
CONVECTION MAY MOVE INTO THE CAE/CUB AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING
AS THE FRONT TO OUR NORTH SLOWLY SINKS SOUTHWARD. GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN BACKING OFF ON RESTRICTIONS, AT LEAST PUSHING THEM BACK
LATER TONIGHT WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS ARRIVING AT CAE/CUB AFTER 07Z
OR SO. INCLUDED PREVAILING MVFR CIGS WITH A TEMPO TO IFR CIGS
HERE 09Z-13Z. LOWER CONFIDENCE AT THE OTHER TERMINALS SO ONLY
INCLUDING A TEMPO FOR MVFR CIGS AT THIS TIME IN THE 09Z-13Z
TIME FRAME. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MAY PERSIST THROUGH THE
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT CAE/CUB WITH CHANCES INCREASING
ALL TERMINALS TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR CONVERGENCE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL TAF SITES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...23
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