098
FXUS62 KCAE 240747
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT STARTING AT NOON TODAY FOR THE
COLUMBIA METRO AREA AND COUNTIES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. KEY
MESSAGE UPDATED TO REFLECT LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
TODAY, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. RAIN PERSISTS INTO THE SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TODAY, RESULTING IN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING. RAIN PERSISTS INTO THE SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
AFTER MANY DAYS OF ANTICIPATION, THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HAS REACHED
THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TOWARDS THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA. NOW THAT THE BOUNDARY HAS REACHED SOUTH
CAROLINA, THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
HIGHEST TODAY. THE WPC HAS PLACED THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA IN A
SLIGHT (2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WITH A MODERATE (3/4)
RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS. THE SLOW MOVING FRONT
WILL SERVE AS AN AXIS FOR ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUPPORTED BY RISING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2", INCREASING LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE, AND DECREASING WINDS ALOFT. LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY CONCERNING, SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR 2
TO 4 INCHES OF RAINFALL, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN EXCESS
OF 5 INCHES. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDLANDS WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FROM URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IF TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER AREAS
PRONE TO FLASH FLOODING. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER YOU ARE IN THE
WATCH ITSELF, EVERYONE SHOULD REMAIN WEATHER AWARE TODAY AND
REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND, DON'T DROWN SHOULD YOU ENCOUNTER A
FLOODED ROADWAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO SATURDAY,
ALTHOUGH COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME MORE SCATTERED AS THE FRONT WEAKENS
AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATES. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO SEE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ON
SATURDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT WITH FORECAST HIGHS TODAY
MOSTLY IN THE 80S AND A FEW DEGREES WARMER ON SATURDAY. A MORE
TYPICAL LATE JULY PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN NEXT WEEK, BRINGING
BACK HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WITH DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH LOWERING
CIGS AND PERIODIC HEAVY RAIN-STORMS.
A SLOW MOVING FRONT IS DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL BRING
IFR CIGS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ALONG WITH PERIODIC SHOWERS.
CIGS WILL LIFT LATER THIS MORNING TO MVFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT
WAVES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN EXPECTED UNTIL THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. PERIODIC IFR-LIFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AT
TIMES ALONG WITH THUNDER. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST IN RESTRICTIONS
AT CAE, OGB, AND CUB FROM 00Z SATURDAY - 12Z SATURDAY. WINDS FOR
CAE AND CUB SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD WHILE OGB, DNL, AND AGS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE VARIABLE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND FOR ALL TAF SITES.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON EDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR
SCZ027-028-031-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page