856
FXUS62 KCAE 250436
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1236 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAIN CHANCES SHIFT
EAST TO THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST ON SATURDAY. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN CHANCES PERSIST INTO SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.
RADAR TONIGHT SHOWS A FEW AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL
MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED
WITH THIS UPDATE AS RAINFALL RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. SOME
OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS RAIN WILL MOVE INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN MIDLANDS TOWARDS DAYBREAK SO MAINTAINED A CHANCE
POPS IN THOSE LOCATIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THIS.
THE CHANCE OF RAIN CONTINUES TOMORROW AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AN UPPER
TROUGH AXIS SWING THROUGH THE REGION BUT EXPECT THE AXIS OF
HEAVIER RAINFALL TO SHIFT TOWARDS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE LATEST
WPC ERO LINES UP WITH THIS AND HAS A SLIGHT RISK (2/4) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS EAST WITH
A MARGINAL (1/4) RISK ELSEWHERE. KEPT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA WHERE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS MOST LIKELY. RAIN
CHANCES SHOULD BE EVEN LOWER ON SUNDAY WITH MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- 2. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY THEN A
MORE SUMMER LIKE PATTERN RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
THE COMBINATION OF THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH EXTENSIVE
CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT RAINFALL WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES NEAR
TO BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
FURTHER NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL EXPAND AND
STRENGTHEN INTO THE PLAINS STATES BY SUNDAY RESULTING IN
DOWNSTREAM UPPER TROUGHING ALONG THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN SOME DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE REGION SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AIDED BY DOWNSLOPING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM BACK TO NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY
UPPER 90S BY MID WEEK.
AVIATION /04Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A MIX OF RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD....
RADAR TONIGHT DEPICTS A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION BUT RAIN RATES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND SHOULD BE LARGELY
OVER FOR THE NIGHT AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS ARE FORECAST TO LOWER
AND BECOME PREDOMINANTLY IFR FOR SEVERAL HOURS. CIGS SHOULD
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO NEARLY CALM LATE. WINDS INCREASE TO 5-8 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST AFTER ABOUT 13Z ONCE AGAIN.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR ALL TAF SITES THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...7
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