173
FXUS62 KCAE 270028
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
828 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
00Z TAF.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO WORK IN MONDAY WITH PWATS FALLING
TOWARD 1.60-1.80" AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE
NORTHERLY, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE DAY. OVERALL, THIS SHOULD
BRING A MOSTLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE CWA OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLY AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO. THE PATTERN BECOMES A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED
HEADING INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES GRADUALLY RETROGRADES WESTWARD WITH A
DEEPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WITH 500MB HEIGHTS
NEAR THE LREF 2ND PERCENTILE. A SHORTWAVE PUSHING OUT OF THE
BASE OF THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO HELP DRAG A SURFACE FRONT
INTO THE REGION BY LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT AHEAD OF
THIS, MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH EC
ENSEMBLE AND GEFS PWAT'S REACHING BACK NEAR 2". SOUTHWESTERLY
LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD ALSO AID IN BRINGING HOT/HUMID CONDITIONS
TUESDAY. THE STRONGER KINEMATICS WITH THIS SYSTEM STILL APPEAR
TO KEEP NORTH OF THE FA IN 12Z GUIDANCE, OVERALL LIMITING THE
SEVERE RISK. AT LEAST MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES TOWARD THE
PEE DEE COULD BRING AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM TUESDAY
EVENING, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW. THE FRONT THEN IS SHOWN
WORKING THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
BEHIND IT USHERING IN DRIER AIR. RAINFALL EXPECTATIONS IN THE
TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME HAVE NOT CHANGED ALL TOO MUCH WITH
ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY BEING FAIRLY SCATTERED AT BEST AND MAINLY IN
THE TUESDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDOW.
SOME OF THE DRIEST AIR IN AT LEAST THE LAST 3-4 WEEKS IS
PROGGED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT THANKS TO THE DEEP UPPER
TROUGH WITH MEAN LREF PWATS DROPPING TO UNDER 1.50" AND PERHAPS
EVEN UNDER 1.25" AT TIMES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS IS FURTHER
SUPPORTED LOOKING ACROSS MEMBERS IN THE EC ENSEMBLE AND GEFS.
DUE TO THIS, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HINTING THAT AS THE UPPER RIDGE
CONTINUES TO RETROGRADE TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO THE
WEEKEND, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE COULD BEGIN NEARING THE SOUTHEAST IN
THIS NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME. THIS COULD BRING BACK RAIN CHANCES,
BUT IT IS WORTH NOTING THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN LREF
CLUSTERS IN THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHORTWAVE.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
FOG AND STRATUS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT ALL TERMINALS AS SHOWERS
AND STORMS HAVE DIMINISHED THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER
FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASING DRY AIR PUSHING INTO THE REGION
TONIGHT WITH PWATS LIKELY DROPPING BELOW AN INCH AND A HALF.
WITH LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE, THIS WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
SETUP FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT EARLY MONDAY MORNING. RECENT RUNS OF
GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS,
ESPECIALLY AT COLUMBIA, OGB, AND AIK. A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS AT AGS AND DNL, MAINLY OWING TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
LINGERING CLOUD COVERAGE AS A MCS MOVES INTO NORTH GEORGIA FROM
THE MIDWEST. WHILE FAIRLY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE
AUGUSTA TERMINALS, DEBRIS CLOUDINESS MAY INTERFERE WITH FOG
DEVELOPMENT. HAVE CONTINUED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL
TERMINALS WITH THIS TAF ISSUANCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR
EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
BUT LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR STORMS. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, FAVORING A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION MONDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BY LATE TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY,
RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN WITH ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE. DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH/PL
AVIATION...96
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