733
FXUS62 KCAE 270516
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINOR CHANGES TO KEY MESSAGES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. A MORE TYPICAL SUMMER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE DRIER CONDITIONS MOVE IN FOR THE LATE WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.
A RELATIVELY QUIET WEEK OF WEATHER IS FORECAST, WITH SOME
NOTABLE POTENTIAL EXCEPTIONS, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY EVENING. THE
WEATHER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE CONUS IS FORECAST TO BE DICTATED BY
TWO DISTINCTLY ANOMALOUS UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. THE DOMINANT ONE
WILL BE AN INTENSE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE, CURRENTLY OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND FORECAST TO SLOWLY RETROGRADE TO THE WEST
AS THE WEEK GOES ALONG. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE IS ON
THE ORDER OF 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE NORMAL, AND WILL HELP
TO FORCE A TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD NEARLY THAT STRONG
AS WELL. AS THE RIDGE RETROGRADES WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEK,
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD SOUTHWARD AND SLIGHTLY WESTWARD,
HANGING OUT OVER THE CAROLINAS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK. THE
IMPETUS FOR THIS TROUGH DIGGING IS FORECAST TO BE A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH, CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADING
TOWARDS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY. AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS IS EXPECTED WITH THIS,
THOUGH COVERAGE IS STILL FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. THE FRONT WON'T BE
APPROACHING UNTIL LATER ON TUESDAY AND THE BEST FORCING AND
SHEAR LOOKS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE FRONT SHOULD BE PUSHING
THROUGH BY EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY, WITH THE BEST FOCUS FOR
CONVECTION EXPECTED IN THE COASTAL PLAIN. SO WE FIND OURSELVES
STARING AT ANOTHER EVENT WHERE, IN THEORY, WE SHOULD GET RAIN
BUT THE REALITY IS THAT WE WILL LIKELY MISS OUT ON WIDESPREAD
RAIN AGAIN ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. IT IS FORECAST TO BE QUITE HOT
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER 90S AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE AT LEAST IN THE LOW 70S. IF
THOSE CREEP UP INTO THE MID 70S OR HIGHER (SEEMS LIKE A STRETCH
CONSIDERING HOW DRY THE SOIL IS), WE MAY NEED HEAT ADVISORIES
ACROSS THE AREA.
REGARDLESS OF RAIN CHANCES, THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY LOOKS QUITE NICE. WHILE HIGH TEMPS WON'T REALLY
TAKE A DIP (REMAINING IN THE LOW 90S), SURFACE MOISTURE IS
FORECAST TO BE WELL-BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWS NEAR
OR BELOW 1" ARE FORECAST BEHIND THE FRONT, WHICH IS ~10TH
PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NICE
BREAK IN THE HUMIDITY AS AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BUMP
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S! BY NEXT WEEKEND, THE TROUGHING IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE RETROGRADING SLOWLY WEST IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE RIDGE, AND GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
RELATIVELY FAVORABLE SETUP FOR RAINFALL MAY OCCUR. IN THE
BACKGROUND OF THIS ENTIRE FORECAST IS QUITE GOOD AGREEMENT IN
THE GUIDANCE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE
AMONGST SCENARIOS SURROUNDING NEXT WEEKEND. OVERALL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGH IN THE FORECAST FOR THE MAJORITY OF THIS PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS LIKELY EARLY THIS MORNING.
NW FLOW OVER THE AREA WILL ALLOW DRY AIR TO PUSH INTO THE
REGION. LINGERING SURFACE MOISTURE AND DRY AIR ALOFT ARE A
FAVORABLE SETUP FOR EARLY MORNING FOG DEVELOPMENT. MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT WITH WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. HAVE
CONTINUED VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AT ALL TERMINALS WITH THIS TAF
ISSUANCE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR EXPECTED BY MID TO LATE
MORNING WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW, SO NO STORMS OR SHOWERS
MENTIONED AT THE MOMENT. WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
FAVORING A NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE MID-WEEK WITH
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHEAST.
DRIER AIR MOVES IN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CJR
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