320
FXUS62 KCAE 310014
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
814 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TWEAKED THE WORDING IN KEY MESSAGE 1 TO REMOVE WORDING FOR TODAY
AND SHIFTING FOCUS TO TOMORROW. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
00Z.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WILL PROVIDE A
BREAK FROM THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MAINTAIN A LIGHT, DRY NORTHERLY BREEZE OVER THE AREA TO END THE
WEEK. ALOFT, NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT DRY CONDITIONS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS INTO
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR AVERAGE TOMORROW,
WITH DEWPOINTS LIKELY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S RANGE ONCE AGAIN.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES RAMP BACK UP THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNS.
AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND, THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE FOR RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
RETREATS, ALLOWING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND BRING AN
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEGINNING SATURDAY. THE OVERALL PATTERN
SUPPORTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS,
ALTHOUGH RECENT RAINFALL TRENDS SUGGEST CAUTION IS WARRANTED
REGRADING COVERAGE. EVEN SO, THE LARGE-SCALE SETUP APPEARS
FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS, EFFICIENT SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGINNING
SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
A MATURING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
OH VALLEY AND OCCLUDE AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM, WITH
PWS CLIMBING BACK TO AROUND 2" AND REMAINING ELEVATED INTO NEXT
WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST, WITH THE
BEST OVERALL CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP ARRIVING ON SUNDAY.
DAILY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK, WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTING LOWER MAX
TEMPERATURES DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION DURING
PEAK HEATING. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CURRENTLY APPEARS
UNLIKELY GIVEN THE VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH POTENTIAL
FLASH FLOODING BEING THE MAIN THREAT.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
CALM DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION WILL LEAD TO VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL DROP OFF OVERNIGHT
AND THE ONLY CLOUD COVER OF NOTE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED CU AND
CIRRUS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN VARIABLE FRIDAY,
FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND/29
AVIATION...42
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