801
FXUS62 KCAE 311740
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
140 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST
AREA BASED ON SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS. DECREASED POPS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
THERE IS A GRADIENT IN THE PWATS ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VALUES RANGING FROM 0.8 INCHES IN THE CHARLOTTE
METRO TO 1.1 INCHES IN THE SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH ONLY A FEW
FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MORE
AGGRESSIVE CUMULUS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
STARTING TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA AS WELL, WITH MORE CONVECTION
FIRING ACROSS THE LOW COUNTRY ALONG THE SEABREEZE. BASED ON
THESE TRENDS AND HI-RES GUIDANCE, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE
INTRODUCED TO PORTIONS OF BAMBERG, CLARENDON, AND ORANGEBURG
COUNTIES TO ACCOUNT FOR A FEW POP UP SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 90S.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH A MORE TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK. AS THEY DO, MOISTURE INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY,
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
TOP THE 2" MARK. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO
THE WEST, KEEPING A MAIN TRIGGER FOR FOCUSED PRECIPITATION TO
OUR WEST AS WELL. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES KEEP RELATIVELY LOW
(~10-20% DEPENDING ON MODEL SUITE) CHANCES OF GREATER THAN 2" OF
RAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND, POPS WERE DROPPED BY
10-20 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION AS
OPPOSED TO A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE EXPECTED
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE
LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER 2" AS ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BE EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY MODELED SOUNDINGS
THAT SHOW A LONG SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THERE IS ALSO AN
INVERTED-V INDICATED SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR STRONG WINDS FROM
ANY ROBUST CONVECTION. THIS IS ECHOED BY THE SPC DAY 3 SWO WHICH
SHOWS A MARGINAL (1/5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
AFTER THE WEEKEND, MORE TYPICAL DIURNALLY DRIVEN ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID-WEEK AS RESIDUAL MOISTURE HANGS AROUND
THE AREA.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATELLITE DOES SHOW SOME ENHANCED CU ALONG
THE SEA-BREEZE ALONG THE COAST, WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWER
OR TWO BEING INDICATED ON RADAR. THESE WILL REMAIN OFF TO THE
EAST OF ALL TAF LOCATIONS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH THE
CUMULUS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
WITH THE AIRMASS STILL ON THE DRIER SIDE, DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
VISIBILITY ISSUES TONIGHT, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME SHALLOW
STEAM RISING ON AREA RIVERS AND LAKES SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS
MOSTLY VARIABLE THROUGH TONIGHT, THEN TURNING MORE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST SATURDAY LATE MORNING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...73
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