093
FXUS62 KCAE 020626
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS HAS
BECOME VERY LOW. SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY, LIMITING FLASH FLOOD THREAT. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO END THE WEEKEND
WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO END THE WEEKEND
WITH A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN RETURNING NEXT WEEK.
THE ACTIVITY FROM THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA SAVE FOR A COUPLE LIGHT SHOWERS IN CHESTERFIELD COUNTY.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TREKKING THROUGH THE LARGER SCALE
FLOW, LEAVING SUBSIDENCE BEHIND IT. BECAUSE OF THIS, THE RAIN
CHANCES INTO THE MORNING HOURS IS VERY LOW.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRANSLATING AROUND THE BASE OF A LARGER SCALE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY, SPARKING A
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
WITH SATURDAY, THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. HOWEVER, LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE HAS
SUGGESTED THE PWATS WON'T QUITE BE AS HIGH AS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, BUT STILL AROUND THE 2" MARK. IN ADDITION, STORM
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BE FASTER THAN SATURDAY DUE TO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE, BUT THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOWER THAN IT WAS SATURDAY. IF TRAINING
OCCURS OR HEAVY RAIN ENDS UP OVER AREAS THAT SAW A LOT OF RAIN
SATURDAY, THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED FLOODING. DUE TO THE
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT, AND RESULTING SHEAR, A STRONG STORM OR TWO
WITH GUSTY WINDS IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BREAK OFF OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
EARLY IN THE WEEK AHEAD, MEANDERING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
FOR A WHILE. AS SUCH, DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AHEAD.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED BEFORE SUNRISE AND CONTINUING
THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE IMPROVING THIS AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL HAS ENDED ACROSS THE REGION BUT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE
PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. SOME
IFR/LIFR CIGS ALREADY OCCURRING AT SOME TERMINALS AND EXPECT
THAT TO BE THE CASE AT ALL TERMINALS BY 08Z AND CONTINUING UNTIL
AROUND 14-15Z WHEN CIGS BEGIN IMPROVING TO MVFR AND THEN
EVENTUALLY VFR BY AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS FROM
YESTERDAY AND AGAIN EXPECT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z. WINDS SHOULD BE A BIT STRONGER TODAY AND FROM
THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS
CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...23
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