374
FXUS62 KCAE 040527
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
127 AM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STORMS CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY.
DISCUSSION
- 1. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK
AS TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND AVERAGE. A COUPLE STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY.
A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS DEVELOPING JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE STREAMING
INTO THE REGION, WITH THE GREATEST MOISTURE REMAINING EAST OF
THE AREA AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN
KEEPING THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK,
SUPPORTING ABOVE-NORMAL COVERAGE OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, WHILE COOLER AND DRIER AIR ALOFT
WILL HELP STEEPEN LAPSE RATES AND INCREASE INSTABILITY. COMBINED
WITH MODEST WIND SHEAR, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE LATE EVENING AS
FORECAST CAPE PROFILES NEAR 2000-2500 J/KG WITH DCAPE VALUES
AROUND 800-1200 J/KG. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO
SEVERE, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY CONCERN. REPEAT
DAYS OF CONVECTION HAS RESULTED IN A SLOWLY-INCREASING RISK OF
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR TRAINING STORMS OVER A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME.
BY WEDNESDAY, AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN AND LIFT THE UPPER LOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. WHILE WEAK
TROUGHING LINGERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, THE OVERALL
THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS APPEARS LOWER. DAILY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIKELY. A ROBUST RIDGE
NEAR THE NAEFS CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX BUILDS OFF THE EAST COAST
THIS WEEKEND. THE RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW DEEP SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW TO PERSIST LATE IN THE WEEK, KEEPING PWAT'S
DURING THIS PERIOD NEAR 2" WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
IFR OR LOWER RESTRICTIONS LIKELY THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING.
WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN,
CONTINUED WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR THE TAF SITES DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
LIGHT WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS WILL ONCE AGAIN ALLOW THE FORMATION OF WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR STRATUS DEVELOPMENT, POTENTIALLY BUILDING DOWN TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS FROM
TAF ISSUANCE FROM AROUND 06Z TO AROUND 15Z. CONSIDERING CURRENT
CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY INDICATING THAT DEVELOPMENT, HAVE GENERALLY
GONE WITH THAT SOLUTION. LIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH WEAK MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
OVER THE AREA, WE EXPECTED ANOTHER DAY OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE SHOULD SUPPORT PROB30 GROUPS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON, SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS LIKELY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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