179
FXUS62 KCAE 050021
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
821 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE, WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SEVERE
DOWNBURST WINDS POSSIBLE. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK.
WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE TO THE EAST WE WILL SEE SCATTERED STORMS
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. THE ENVIRONMENT FAVORS TYPICAL
PULSE CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM.
DESPITE LOWER PWAT VALUES TODAY, SLOW STORM MOVEMENT MAY SUPPORT
A LOCALIZED THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE
IF STORMS DEVELOP OVER URBAN AREAS. AFTER SUNSET, WE SHOULD SEE
CONVECTION DIMINISH WITH JUST A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING OVERNIGHT.
BEYOND TODAY, WE ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SEE RISING HEIGHTS
AND RISING AFTERNOON HIGHS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN THE 500 HPA HEIGHT PATTERN & PWS
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH LREF MEMBERS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF IQR SPREAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK FOR BOTH FEATURES.
WHILE THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FILL AND WEAKEN QUICKLY OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, THE PRESENCE OF 1.8"-2.0" PWS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR DAILY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS
LOOK TO BE ANYWHERE FROM 88F TO 93F EACH DAY THIS WEEK WHICH IS
FORECAST TO BE REACHED FAIRLY EASILY. SO OPPRESSIVE HUMIDITY,
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS IN THE MID 90S, AND DIURNAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE THE NORM BY THE SECOND
HALF OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH OCCASIONAL RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. CIG RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT, BUT
LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS.
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AS SURFACE
WINDS CONTINUE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KTS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MIDLANDS. COVERAGE FOR NOW CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT PROB30 GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET. STRONGER
STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AND BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ALONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS OF 25-30 KTS.
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE LESS AGGRESSIVE COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
NIGHTS REGARDING RESTRICTIONS. HOWEVER, INCREASED MOISTURE
STILL REMAINS IN PLACE, SO I'VE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THESE SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE WITH SCATTERED CUMULUS
DEVELOPING ALONG WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS. ANOTHER
DAY OF DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH COVERAGE SUPPORTING PROB30 GROUPS, SIMILAR TO
PREVIOUS DAYS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED
THIS WEEK WITH EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR/PL
AVIATION...ND
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