384
FXUS62 KCAE 070533
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
133 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL FORECAST, WITH DAILY AFTERNOON
STORM CHANCES AND INCREASING HEAT/HUMIDITY NEXT WEEK. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
A WAVY, NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CONUS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LATEST HRRR AND HREF SUGGEST SOMEWHAT LOWER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE COMPARED TO THURSDAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
GIVEN THE POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. THE
OVERALL ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY, WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE IN PLACE TO SUPPORT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
FAVORABLE PROFILE FOR WET MICROBURSTS. PWAT VALUES AROUND 2
INCHES, COMBINED WITH SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND ALREADY SATURATED
SOILS WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, COVERAGE SHOULD TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE
WEEKEND, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD SOUTHWARD
INTO THE FA. 90TH PERCENTILE HEIGHTS WILL FOSTER HIGHS CLIMBING
BACK INTO THE MID- 90S THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING CONVECTIVE CHANCES NEXT WEEK, AS
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER ON THE PLACEMENT OF A FRONT NEAR
OUR AREA. SOME SOLUTIONS KEEP THE BOUNDARY CLOSE ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, WHILE
OTHERS KEEP IT FARTHER NORTH WITH MORE ISOLATED CONVECTION. THE
EVENTUAL POSITION WILL ALSO INFLUENCE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES, AS
CLOUD COVER FROM DIURNAL CONVECTION COULD TEMPER AFTERNOON HIGHS
DURING PEAK HEATING. NONETHELESS, A COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOW TO MID-90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID-70S WILL
LIKELY PUSH HEAT INDICES TOWARD OR OVER THE 100-DEGREE MARK FOR
SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING HOURS.
PLENTY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS THE REGION FROM ALL
THE RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED ON THURSDAY. WITH LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS, AND SOME CLEARING OVER THE AREA, EXPECT TO SEE SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THIS
POTENTIAL, WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING TO AROUND 1/2SM IN FOG AT
TIMES TOWARDS SUNRISE. SOME OF THIS MAY BE PRECLUDED BY CURRENT
CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE CSRA SITES OF AGS/DNL. HOWEVER
WITH LESS CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TAF LOCATIONS, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SEEING AT LEAST SOME IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS
DEVELOPING, ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 08Z-10Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AFTER SUNRISE, BUT VFR IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP UNTIL BETWEEN 14-16Z. AS FOR ANY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE SHOWS AT LEAST ISOLATED ACTIVITY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA-BREEZE MOVES INLAND. HOWEVER
CONSIDERING GUIDANCE BASED COVERAGE HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LOW THE
PAST FEW DAYS, EXPECT TO SEE AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. HAVE CONTINUED WITH
PROB30 GROUPING FOR ANY ACTIVE DEVELOPMENT AT ALL LOCATIONS FROM
EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH AT LEAST CLOSE TO SUNSET. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL THUNDERSTORM RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH ADDITIONAL EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS ALSO POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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