121
FXUS62 KCAE 080535
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
135 AM EDT SAT AUG 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
KEY MESSAGES REMAIN THE SAME FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME STRONG, EACH DAY.
MORE OF THE SAME PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW, IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE REGION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS WEEKEND,
WITH THE FOCUS SHIFTING CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO FLATTEN. HOWEVER, DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. DAILY SBCAPE VALUES
SHOULD ALSO REMAIN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT DIURNAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SO THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN DESPITE THE OVERALL DECREASE
IN COVERAGE. STRONG STORMS ARE CAPABLE EACH DAY, AS SUFFICIENT
CAPE WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR WET MICROBURSTS WITHIN THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN BY NEXT WEEK,
WHICH SHOULD HELP KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
GENERALLY ISOLATED, THOUGH DAILY STORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE. THERE IS ALSO A SIGNAL, ALBEIT AN INCONSISTENT ONCE,
THAT A DEEPER TROUGH COULD MOVE INTO THE EASTERN CONUS TOWARDS
THE END OF NEXT WEEK, POTENTIALLY INCREASING STORM COVERAGE ONCE
AGAIN.
- 2. INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH 90TH PERCENTILE
500 HPA HEIGHTS OVERSPREADING THE AREA BY SUNDAY. WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW COMMON AND AFTERNOON STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED
TO LOWER A BIT BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST
TO BUMP UP INTO THE MID 90S. WITH PERSISTENTLY HIGH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S, LREF GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE A HIGH
LIKELIHOOD OF DAILY, PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUE EXCEEDING 100F. WHILE
THIS ISN'T AT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT ISN'T CRAZY TO THINK WE
MAY HAVE A DAY OR TWO NEXT WEEK WHERE WE APPROACH 105F-108F FOR
AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES. BE SURE TO PRACTICE GOOD HABITS
WHEN DEALING WITH THE HEAT NEXT WEEK!
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
IFR RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS AND DRY AIR ALOFT SHOULD YIELD ANOTHER ROUND OF
RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING. HREF GUIDANCE SHOWS STRATUS PUSHING IN
FROM THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH SE FLOW IN PLACE. LAMP GUIDANCE IS
STARTING TO SHOW MORE OF A SIGNAL FOR STRATUS DEVELOPING MAINLY
AFTER 09Z. HOWEVER, PRONE AREAS LIKE AGS/OGB MAY SEE RESTRICTIONS
STARTING EARLIER. REDUCED VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE,
ALTHOUGH WITH NO TAF SITES RECEIVING HEAVY RAIN TODAY, ANY FOG MAY
NOT BE AS DENSE AS THE PAST FEW MORNINGS. RESTRICTIONS SHOULD EASE
BY 13Z OR 14Z WITH LIGHT SE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TODAY SEEMS TO BE LESS THAN THE
PAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT OGB. HAVE HANDLED THE
POTENTIAL FOR -TSRA WITH A PROB30 THERE, AND ONLY VCSH AT THE OTHER
TERMINALS WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A SEASONAL PATTERN OF EARLY MORNING
RESTRICTIONS AND DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS IS LIKELY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE EXTENDED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...EC
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