869
FXUS62 KCAE 141738
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
138 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BUT
THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. AVIATION UPDATED
FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 TODAY. LESS CERTAINTY SAT.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 TODAY. LESS CERTAINTY SAT.
TODAY: RIDGING WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. WITH THE LOW CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S OR AROUND 100 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, BRINGING HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
SATURDAY: RIDGING BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY LEADING TO SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE AREA. THE REFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL STILL BE AROUND 105, THE CONVECTION MAY CUT OFF HEATING.
THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SATURDAY BUT ONE MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER DEPENDING ON THE
TRENDS IN OBS/SATELLITE AND CAMS.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WEAK SHEAR OVER THE AREA WE
WOULD EXPECT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALSO FAVORING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW A DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY
WITH A HOT, MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CWA. THE GFS MIXES AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S AND WAS DISREGARDED. PERHAPS THIS
PARTLY EXPLAINS THE EXTREMELY LOW POPS IN THE NBM. INSTEAD WE
FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THAT THIS SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING AS CURRENTLY PROGGED. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
VFR CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED.
CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED POPPING UP, SO PROB30 GROUPS FOR
-TSRA HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FROM 18Z-24Z. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS MAY RESULT IN BRIEF RESTRICTIONS UNDER ANY STORM.
OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG
WILL ONCE AGAIN DEPEND LARGELY ON RAINFALL TODAY. HOWEVER, THE
THREAT FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS REMAINS LOW WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY, WITH WINDS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY AROUND 5-7 KTS. ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED, WITH COVERAGE POTENTIALLY A BIT
MORE WIDESPREAD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...7/CJR
AVIATION...ND
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