677
FXUS62 KCAE 141934
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
334 PM EDT FRI AUG 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 8 PM SATURDAY GIVEN
THE MULTIPLE DAYS OF ELEVATED HEAT. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION MAY HAMPER
HEATING ON SATURDAY, POCKETS OF HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 110
WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
- 1. HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105-110 TODAY. LESS CERTAINTY SAT.
TODAY: RIDGING WILL WORK TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
TODAY. WITH THE LOW CONVECTIVE COVERAGE, MUCH OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S OR AROUND 100 DEGREES.
DEWPOINTS WILL MIX INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S, BRINGING HEAT INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN 105 AND 110 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. A HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH 8 PM.
SATURDAY: RIDGING BREAKS DOWN SLIGHTLY LEADING TO SLIGHT HEIGHT
FALLS OVER THE AREA. THE REFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SHOW SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL STILL BE AROUND 105, THE CONVECTION MAY CUT OFF HEATING.
THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN REACHING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
SATURDAY. HOWEVER WE HAVE EXTENDED THE HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH
8AM SATURDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR COMPOUNDING IMPACTS OF MULTIPLE
DAYS WITH ELEVATED HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
BUT ONE
MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER DEPENDING ON THE TRENDS IN
OBS/SATELLITE AND CAMS.
- 2. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WITH WEAK SHEAR OVER THE AREA WE
WOULD EXPECT PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION ALONG WITH TYPICAL SUMMERTIME
CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS. MEAN PWAT VALUES FROM
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ALSO FAVORING AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION. MODELS SHOW A DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON MONDAY
WITH A HOT, MOIST AIR MASS OVER THE CWA. THE GFS MIXES AFTERNOON
DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 50S AND WAS DISREGARDED. PERHAPS THIS
PARTLY EXPLAINS THE EXTREMELY LOW POPS IN THE NBM. INSTEAD WE
FAVORED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GIVEN THAT THIS SETUP WOULD BE
FAVORABLE FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER IF THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH DURING PEAK HEATING AS CURRENTLY PROGGED. THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WE WILL CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. HEAT
ADVISORIES COULD BE NEEDED EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED CONVECTION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SOME SHALLOW SUNRISE STRATUS-FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 13-14Z THIS
MORNING, BUT NO RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME;
MENTIONED MIFG WITH NO RESTRICTIONS AT AGS, CAE, AND AIK THROUGH
13Z THIS MORNING. FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY, A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY
IS EXPECTED WITH CU AROUND 5K FEET DEVELOPING AND LATE AFTERNOON
& EVENING SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. PROB30 GROUP INCLUDED FOR
ALL TAF SITES FOR TSRA THIS AFTERNOON- EVENING. WINDS THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WILL BE WEST- SOUTHWEST, WITH SOME GUSTS PERIODICALLY
UP TO 10 KNOTS OUTSIDE OF ANY CONVECTION.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...7/CJR
AVIATION...42
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