612
FXUS62 KCAE 160553
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 AM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LOWER TODAY
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY.
- 2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
DISCUSSION
1. THE HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES
LIKELY PEAKING ON MONDAY.
LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BROAD UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE REGION AND SHOULD RESULT IN ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY WITH
FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S, PERHAPS A FEW DEGREES
LOWER THAN YESTERDAY. A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL
8PM THIS EVENING WITH MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES ONCE AGAIN REACHING
THE 105 TO 110 RANGE IN MOST LOCATIONS. MONDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO
AROUND 100 DEGREES. IF TRENDS CONTINUE, HEAT PRODUCTS WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR MONDAY AS WELL SINCE THE HUMIDITY IS
UNLIKELY TO RELENT. A TROUGH DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF
NEXT WEEK MAY FINALLY BREAK THE THREAT OF EXTREME HEAT WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES.
2. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
LATER TODAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS.
UNLIKE PREVIOUS DAYS, MODEL GUIDANCE IS LESS BULLISH WITH THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY, WITH THE
HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
MODELED SOUNDINGS AT CAE SHOW THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW-LEVEL
CAPPING INVERSION WHICH WOULD LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE AND CAPE. HAVING SAID THAT, A POP UP
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ACROSS THE
REGION. GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOW ON
MONDAY AND THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO THE HIGHLY ANOMALOUS 850MB
TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT CAPPING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA ONCE AGAIN, WITH ANY RAIN ARRIVING TOWARDS EVENING
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST, POTENTIALLY ERODING
THE CAP. MORE TYPICAL AUGUST RAIN CHANCES ARE THEN ANTICIPATED,
PERHAPS INCREASING DURING THE MID TO LATE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN A TROUGH MAY SET UP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SOME MORNING FOG-STRATUS AROUND SUNRISE WITH SOME POSSIBLE
RESTRICTIONS, OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
SOME ELEVATED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS MAY YIELD SOME
STRATUS AND/OR FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY AROUND SUNRISE.
SOME BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO IFR POSSIBLE BUT OVERALL MVFR VSBY
CONDITIONS ARE MORE LIKELY. OTHERWISE A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS
EXPECTED WITH A CU FIELD DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER TODAY IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HOWEVER SO NO PROB30
MENTIONED AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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