502
FXUS62 KCAE 161826
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8PM MONDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES EXPECTED BETWEEN 105 TO 110F. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEK WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
- 2. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEK WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. TODAY,
TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID-90S AND WITH SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE AS PWATS REMAIN AROUND 2 AND A QUARTER INCHES ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA, THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH DRY AIR ALOFT TO MIX
TO THE SURFACE, KEEPING DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S. THIS IS
LEADING TO HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 105 TO 110F WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXTENDED THE
HEAT ADVISORY THROUGH 8PM MONDAY. A BIT STRONGER MIXING TOMORROW
WITH SOME (RELATIVELY) DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO LOWER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE OFFSET WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES LIKELY AS HREF MEAN 850MB TEMPS WILL BE A COUPLE
DEGREES HIGHER, AROUND 23C. HIGHS MONDAY AS A RESULT WILL TOP
OUT AROUND 100F WITH HEAT INDICES SIMILAR TO TODAY. WHILE TODAY
AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS, HEATRISK WILL REMAIN
HIGH, LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY AS BLENDED GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BREAK DOWN. BOTTOM LINE, SIGNIFICANT HEAT RELIEF IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
INTO THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA, BUILDING
OFF OF OUTFLOWS WITH A VERY MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE AND VERY
HIGH INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 3000 J/KG. THIS
IS LEADING TO A VERY TYPICAL PULSE THUNDERSTORM DAY WITH WEAK
FORCING AND SHEAR. WHILE THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOW, A
LOCALIZED STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST REMAINS
POSSIBLE IN THIS HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. SOME DRIER AIR
ALOFT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
STRENGTHENING AS STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE MORE LIMITED
TOMORROW AND FAVORING THE EASTERN AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHORTWAVES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING HIGHER CHANCES FOR
PRECIP LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS.
AFTERNOON CUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE AMID LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THIS EVENING, WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SOUTH AND EAST
OF I-20. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED; HOWEVER, ANY STORMS
THAT DEVELOP COULD BRING BRIEF RESTRICTIONS. PROB30 GROUPS HAVE
BEEN MAINTAINED AT CAE/CUB, WITH TEMPO GROUPS ELSEWHERE DUE TO
ONGOING VICINITY STORMS. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET
WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOW STRATUS AND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE LIMITED SUPPORT IN GUIDANCE,
VSBY RESTRICTIONS HAVE NOT BEE INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY AS DRIER AIR
MOVES IN. A POP-UP SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY
RULED OUT IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SPARSE.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE EACH DAY THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-
025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...ND
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