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FXUS62 KCAE 162328
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
728 PM EDT SUN AUG 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 8 PM MONDAY WITH HEAT
INDICES EXPECTED BETWEEN 105 TO 110F. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 00Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEK WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
- 2. STORM COVERAGE MORE LIMITED MONDAY, THEN INCREASING
CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEK WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT NOW THROUGH 8 PM MONDAY. A BIT STRONGER
MIXING TOMORROW WITH SOME (RELATIVELY) DRIER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO LOWER DEW POINTS. THIS WILL LIKELY BE
OFFSET WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY AS HREF MEAN 850MB TEMPS
WILL BE A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER, AROUND 23C. HIGHS MONDAY AS A
RESULT WILL TOP OUT AROUND 100F WITH HEAT INDICES SIMILAR TO
TODAY. WHILE TODAY AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAYS,
HEATRISK WILL REMAIN HIGH, LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY AS BLENDED
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAINTY FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK
AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. BOTTOM LINE, SIGNIFICANT
HEAT RELIEF IS NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STORM COVERAGE MORE LIMITED MONDAY, THEN
INCREASING CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
SOME DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENING AS STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE
MORE LIMITED TOMORROW AND FAVORING THE EASTERN AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING
HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIP LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
LIMITED RAINFALL COVERAGE THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE. THIS WILL LEAVE TAF SITES DRY OVERNIGHT. WITH A
STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE, ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL WARMING AROUND
850MB, LIMITED RAINFALL CHANCES ON MONDAY, SO WILL KEEP DRY
CONDITIONS AT ALL LOCATIONS. WINDS MAINLY LIGHT TO CALM
OVERNIGHT, THEN MORE WESTERLY AROUND 5 KNOTS BY LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MONDAY. BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDINESS TONIGHT, THEN MORE SCATTERED MID AND UPPER CLOUDS
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE
24 HOUR PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ016-018-020>022-
025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ040-063>065-077.
DISCUSSION...96/73
AVIATION...73
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