419
FXUS62 KCAE 170516
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
116 AM EDT MON AUG 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE, THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED
WITH HIGHS AROUND 100 DEGREES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEK WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY.
- 2. STORM COVERAGE MORE LIMITED TODAY, THEN INCREASING CHANCES
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES INTO THIS WEEK WITH HIGHEST
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY.
UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
CONTINUED ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. TODAY SHOULD BE
THE HOTTEST DAY OF THIS STRETCH WITH FORECAST HIGHS AROUND 100
DEGREES. WITH A LAYER OF RELATIVELY HOT AND DRY AIR MOVING IN
ALOFT, LOWER DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN
SIMILAR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO YESTERDAY DESPITE THE HIGHER
TEMPERATURES. UNFORTUNATELY, TUESDAY MAY BE ANOTHER HOT AND
HUMID DAY MEANING ANOTHER EXTENSION OF THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY
IS POSSIBLE. MODEST IMPROVEMENT IN THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD AS THE RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN, THOUGH THIS IS NO GUARANTEE AND SIGNIFICANT HEAT RELIEF IS
NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STORM COVERAGE MORE LIMITED TODAY, THEN INCREASING
CHANCES THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LAYER OF HOT AND DRY AIR EXPECTED
OVERHEAD TODAY, CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVING SAID THAT, SOME OF THE CAMS SHOW
SPOTTY SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WITH THIS IN MIND, ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. LOOKING AHEAD, CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY SHOULD FAVOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL LEAD TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR
SHORTWAVES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING
HIGHER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.
SOME MIFG POSSIBLY EARLY MONDAY, BUT RESTRICTIONS NOT EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE, TYPICAL SUMMER CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS 5-10 KNOTS, CU FIELD AROUND 5K
FEET, AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
DID NOT INCLUDE A PROB30 GROUP AT THIS TIME WITH RELATIVELY DRY
AIR KEEPING STORMS QUITE ISOLATED TODAY, BUT CONVECTION MAY BE
ADDED IN FUTURE TAFS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ016-018-
020>022-025>031-035-037-038-041-115-116-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ040-063>065-
077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...42
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