788
FXUS62 KCAE 180538
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
138 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THE STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES.
- 2. STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY, WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THE STRETCH OF DANGEROUS HEAT CONTINUES.
A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TODAY USHERING IN SLIGHTLY
DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF I-20. HAVING
SAID THAT, FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID-90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES TODAY SO APPROPRIATE HEAT PRECAUTIONS NEED TO BE MADE
DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS, EVEN FOR THE COUNTIES NOT INCLUDED IN
TODAY'S HEAT ADVISORY. LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED TO SEE THE HIGHEST HEAT INDEX VALUES TODAY,
WHICH COULD APPROACH 110 DEGREES. THE DANGEROUS SUMMER HEAT AND
HUMIDITY CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MAX HEAT INDICES AROUND
105 DEGREES EACH DAY SO WHICH OUR ADVISORY CRITERIA MAY NOT BE
MET, SIGNIFICANT RELIEF FROM THE HEAT REMAINS UNLIKELY UNTIL
THE WEEKEND WHEN THE RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN AND THERE WILL BE
INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.
KEY MESSAGE 2: STORM COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AGAIN TODAY, WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
A CAPPING INVERSION SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IS EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY ACROSS THE FA, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT ANY CONVECTION DESPITE
WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG A SURFACE FRONT. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
HEAT AND HUMIDITY IN PLACE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
PLAIN. SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE,
WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTION FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
ROBUST MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS AND DEEP
LAYER SOUTHWEST FLOW LEADING TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SCT MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION
FROM THE WEST AS CONVECTION IN GEORGIA CONTINUES TO DECAY. RAIN
IS NOT LIKELY TO REACH ANY OF THE TERMINALS TONIGHT. WINDS
TONIGHT SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, PICKING UP AROUND
MIDDAY OUT OF THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MORE CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT TOMORROW AFTERNOON
OR EVENING, ESPECIALLY AT OGB.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR SCZ016-022-027>031-035-037-038-041-135>137.
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR GAZ064-065-077.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...7
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