707
FXUS62 KCAE 220626
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
226 AM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED THE KEY MESSAGES TO REFLECT SEASONAL SUMMER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS WEEK. UPDATED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES.
PERSISTENT UPPER RIDGING THAT WAS IN PLACE THE LAST WEEK WILL GIVE
WAY TO TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US. THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
AND LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. RELATIVELY HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH A LIMITED INTERQUARTILE
RANGE WITHIN BLENDED GUIDANCE.
DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE, ALTHOUGH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STORMS
WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND HREF SBCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG. BY
SUNDAY, NAEFS MEAN INDICATES PWATS WILL BE AROUND THE TENTH
PERCENTILE, AROUND AN INCH AND WHILE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A
STRAY STORM WITH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECTED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. WHILE
ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK,
INCREASING MOISTURE MID TO LATE WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHER
COVERAGE OF STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH LREF PROBABILITIES AROUND 50-
70% OF PWATS GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AND WEAK SHORTWAVES LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT AT ALL SITES SANS OGB. IFR AND
POTENTIALLY LIFR CEILINGS LIKELY AWAIT US LATER TONIGHT...
HIGH, DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA AS CONVECTION
WANES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BENEATH THIS, OBSERVATIONS
REVEAL A DECK OF STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP AND PUSH SOUTHWARD
OUT OF THE NORTHERN MIDLANDS. ORANGEBURG IS ALREADY SEEING IFR
CEILINGS AND CUB/CAE HAVE FLIRTED WITH CEILINGS OVER THE LAST
HOUR OR TWO. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD CEILING RESTRICTIONS TO
OVERSPREAD THE SITES OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS, PERSISTING THROUGH
LATE MORNING ACROSS THE AREA. WE SHOULD SEE CLOUDS BREAK BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE
THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE IS FAR LESS CERTAIN THAN IT WAS
YESTERDAY, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OF PRECIP OUT OF THE
TAFS FOR NOW.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REMAIN INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION EXPECTED.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...PL
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