551
FXUS62 KCAE 230011
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
811 PM EDT SAT AUG 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED 00Z AVIATION.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES EACH DAY INTO NEXT WEEK.
CALM WEATHER EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY WITH SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY PIVOTING EAST INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN FOR THE EVENING
WITH DRIER AND SOME MID- LEVEL SUBSIDENCE CLEARING CLOUD COVER
OUT OF THE MIDLANDS AND CSRA.
BY SUNDAY, NAEFS MEAN INDICATES PWATS WILL BE AROUND THE TENTH
PERCENTILE, AROUND AN INCH, AND WHILE CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT
A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WITH A STRONG MOISTURE GRADIENT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXPECTED MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS. WHILE ISOLATED DIURNALLY DRIVEN THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS WEEK, INCREASING MOISTURE MID TO LATE
WEEK WILL LIKELY LEAD TO HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LREF PROBABILITIES AROUND 50-70% OF PWATS,
GREATER THAN 1.75 INCHES, WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WEAK SHORTWAVES LEADING TO INCREASED FORCING.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH SOME FOG-STRATUS
POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY.
CONVECTION HAS MOVED EAST OF ALL TAF SITES AS OF 00Z SO NO
ADDITIONAL MENTIONS IN THE TAFS. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY CALM AND
CLEAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SOME
FOG-STRATUS IS POSSIBLE AROUND SUNRISE BUT CONFIDENCE IS
RELATIVELY LOW IN RESTRICTIONS BELOW MVFR. FOR THE REMAINDER OF
SUNDAY, A TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON CU AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR TAF SITE
IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...42
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