029
FXUS62 KCAE 242339
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
739 PM EDT MON AUG 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED AVIATION FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AS THE WEEK GOES ON.
WE WILL REMAIN VERY MUCH OF THE DRY SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY
DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEW POINTS THIS EVENING DOWN
INTO THE MID-50'S AND AFTERNOON RH'S THAT BOTTOMED OUT IN THE
MID 20%'S. AS A RESULT, CALM WEATHER AND WITH WEAKENING WINDS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM MID TO LATE WEEK, LEADING
TO INCREASING AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. LREF
PROBABILITIES INDICATE A 50-70 PERCENT CHANCE OF PWAT VALUES
EXCEEDING 1.75 INCHES BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. THIS INCREASE IN
MOISTURE, COMBINED WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING SHOULD SUPPORT
GREATER CHANCES FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION. WEAK SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING AND FURTHER
ENHANCE COVERAGE. THURSDAY CURRENTLY APPEARS TO HAVE THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY MAY
BECOME REACTIVATED INTO THE FA. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. AT THIS
TIME, A SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE APPEARS UNLIKELY, WITH
SEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH DAILY CONVECTION CHANCES.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
A STALLED FRONT IS SEEN NEAR OUR AREA, PRIMARILY NEAR OGB AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST, KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AND EAST. DRIER AIR REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
WITH ONLY A FEW LOW-TOPPED CUMULUS THIS EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS
AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT UNDER PASSING CIRRUS.
LATEST HRRR/HREF GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD POOL NEAR THE FRONT, BRINGING PATCHES OF FOG, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS MAINLY AT OGB ARE TOO LOW TO ADD INTO THE
TAF AT THE MOMENT.
AFTER 14-16Z TUESDAY, WINDS PICK BACK UP AROUND 5 KTS, OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUING. SIMILAR TO MONDAY,
CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IN
THE COASTAL PLAINS, BUT I CANNOT ENTIRELY RULE OUT A STRAY
STORM NEAR OGB, HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES REMAIN UNDER 30%.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...ISOLATED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
HIGHER COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/42
AVIATION...ND
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