682
FXUS62 KCAE 261815
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
215 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. RIDGING DEVELOPS FOR NEXT
WEEK LEADING TO LOWER CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND FAVORING WARMER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING AND A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. SATELLITE DERIVED
PWAT VALUES SHOW VALUES EXCEEDING 2 INCHES PUSHING FROM THE
LOWCOUNTRY UP INTO CENTRAL SC WITH A TONGUE OF HIGHER DEWPOINTS
STRETCHING TO NEWBERRY AND SALUDA COUNTIES. THIS AREA HAS BEEN
THE FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY. WITH DCAPE VALUES
GENERALLY BELOW 700 J/KG, PRECIP LOADING WOULD HAVE TO BE THE
MAIN DRIVER OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IT IS POSSIBLE A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE BUT HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT DUE
TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPING TO PROMOTE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEP SW FLOW WILL KEEP ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT
AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW-MOVING OR TRAINING CONVECTION, LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, ALTHOUGH A FEW ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROMOTES CONTINUED CONVECTION.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
BRIEF RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS....
MIDDAY SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE I-26 CORRIDOR. BRIEF RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO PASS
NEAR/OVER THE TAF SITES. WHILE IT IS QUIET AT THE MOMENT IN THE
AUGUSTA AREA, A PROB30 REMAINS IN PLACE THERE ARE WELL WITH
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS THERE AS
WELL. ACTIVITY SHOULD WANE SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH QUIET
WEATHER EXPECTED, THOUGH GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT
OF LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AGAIN TOWARDS DAYBREAK THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...CJR
AVIATION...7
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page