218
FXUS62 KCAE 262358
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
758 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
A FEW LINGERING HEAVY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING, BUT THE FLOODING OR SEVERE THREAT HAVE
DIMINISHED WITH GENERALLY STABLE LOW LEVELS IN PLACE.
THE OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS CONSISTENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SHORTWAVES ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH HELPING TO
PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. DEEP SW FLOW WILL KEEP
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ELEVATED ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THE HIGH
MOISTURE CONTENT AND POTENTIAL FOR SLOW- MOVING OR TRAINING
CONVECTION, LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED, ALTHOUGH A FEW
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PROMOTES CONTINUED
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING, BUT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH
FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
ADDITIONAL RESTRICTIONS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE HAS DECREASED THIS EVENING WITH A FEW
LINGERING SHOWERS REMAINING. SCATTERED DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS IN
PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.
OVERNIGHT, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, BUT WITH GENEROUS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND POCKETS OF HIGHER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS FROM THIS AFTERNOON, GUIDANCE REMAINS INSISTENT ON
FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION IN
COVERAGE AND EXACT TIMING, BUT OVERALL, EACH TERMINAL WILL HAVE
A CHANCE AT IFR TO LIFR CIG AND/OR VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAINLY
BETWEEN 07Z-12Z, WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE TOWARD THE AUGUSTA
TERMINALS AND AIK. MVFR CEILINGS MAY LINGER INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING BEFORE SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED,
POSSIBLY STARTING AS EARLY AS 15-17Z, BUT MOST LIKELY BETWEEN
17Z AND THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS LATE THURSDAY MORNING
ARE EXPECTED TO PICK UP TO AROUND 4-6 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTH,
THOUGH WINDS COULD BECOME MORE VARIABLE AS CONVECTION AND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MOVE ACROSS THE FA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FROM SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...42
AVIATION...DH
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