391
FXUS62 KCAE 310545
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
145 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOT, HUMID, AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE
NEXT WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF INTENSE LATE-SUMMER HEAT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN 700MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILES AT AROUND +10C.
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S (OR AROUND 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL).
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM, WITH
EC EFI VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8 AND A NONZERO SHIFT OF TAILS
(SIMILAR TO THE MAX TEMPERATURES) WITH VALUES ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED 100F THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SOME VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE STRONG
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER TROUGHING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND ACROSS
THE REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG ITS BACKSIDE, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BACK TO THE FA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT STARTING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS.
SKIES HAVE BEEN CLEARING OUT ON SATELLITE. WINDS GENERALLY
LIGHT TO CALM. STILL A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE. THIS SETUP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SOME MORNING FOG
OR LOW STRATUS ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE LEANING MORE TOWARDS
PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG TOWARDS SUNRISE. WENT WITH MORE SCATTERED
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND TOWARDS MORNING, WITH MVFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z. CONTINUED WITH TEMPO FROM 09Z-13Z FOR SOME
IFR/LIFR FOG DEVELOPMENT AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR NOW. MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN SOME FOG FORMATION, BUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT MAY
BECOME AND HOW LOW REMAINS THE QUESTION FOR NOW. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE AFTER 14Z AT ALL SITES, WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE LATE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AROUND
5 KTS, THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AND OUT OF THE EAST, BUT COULD
ALSO BE VARIABLE FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN SO WE
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR THE TIME
BEING.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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