016
FXUS62 KCAE 311045
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
645 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN HOT, HUMID, AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEK. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE THIS WEEK.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE NEXT
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. GENERALLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX VALUES POSSIBLE
THIS WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A STRONG
UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE WEEK, SUPPORTING A PERIOD OF INTENSE LATE-SUMMER HEAT. THIS
PATTERN WILL PROMOTE STRONG SUBSIDENCE, WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN 700MB
TEMPERATURES FORECAST NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILES AT AROUND +10C.
THE ANOMALOUSLY WARM TEMPERATURES, COMBINED WITH A PRONOUNCED
INVERSION WILL INCREASE THE OVERALL LACK OF CONVECTION THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS COMBINATION WILL SUPPORT HIGHS CLIMBING INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 90S (OR AROUND 10 DEGREES HIGHER THAN NORMAL).
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY WARM, WITH
EC EFI VALUES AROUND 0.7-0.8 AND A NONZERO SHIFT OF TAILS
(SIMILAR TO THE MAX TEMPERATURES) WITH VALUES ABOUT 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. PERSISTENT SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL MAINTAIN AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION
RESULTING IN HEAT INDICES TO EXCEED 100F THROUGHOUT THE WEEK.
SOME VALUES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO APPROACH HEAT ADVISORY
CRITERIA BY THE MID TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
GLOBAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING THE STRONG
RIDGE TO RETROGRADE WESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
THIS EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF UPPER TROUGHING
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND SUPPORT A GRADUAL COOLING TREND ACROSS
THE REGION. SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO DRIVE SOUTHEASTWARD
ALONG ITS BACKSIDE, BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAINFALL
BACK TO THE FA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD PROVIDE SOME RELIEF FROM THE
HEAT STARTING NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOWARDS THE MORNING HOURS.
ALTHOUGH SKIES HAVE BEEN MOSTLY CLEAR ON SATELLITE, SOME PATCHY
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS/FOG APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE
REGION, ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN MIDLANDS NEAR OGB. DO EXPECT
SOME OF THIS TO POTENTIALLY IMPACT OTHER TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH
13-14Z. GUIDANCE IS SOMEWHAT VARIABLE ON WIDESPREAD COVERAGE, SO
WILL START OFF WITH CONTINUATION OF EITHER LOW END VFR OR MVFR
CONDITIONS, AND HAVE A TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 14Z FOR IFR OR LIFR
VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IMPROVING BY 14Z AS SLIGHTLY
BETTER MIXING STARTS, WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, AROUND 5 KTS,
THROUGH THE DAY AND OUT OF THE EAST, BUT COULD ALSO BE VARIABLE
FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE DAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BE LIMITED IN COVERAGE ONCE AGAIN SO WE HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION
OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION FOR THE TIME BEING. ANOTHER BOUT OF
MVFR/IFR RESTRICTIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT FOR TUESDAY MORNING
NEAR THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF PERIOD.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...ND
AVIATION...73
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