596
FXUS62 KCAE 020604
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
204 AM EDT WED SEP 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE 100F.
- 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE THIS
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS WEEK WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES ABOVE
100F.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AS THE ROBUST UPPER RIDGE
CURRENTLY CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE FA CONTINUES TO WORK
OVERHEAD BY THURSDAY BEFORE GRADUALLY RETROGRADING THIS WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS SOLID DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE AGREEMENT THAT
AS THIS RIDGE SHIFTS IN, TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 90S AS 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL MAX WITH
850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR THE NAEFS 99.5TH PERCENTILE. THE DAILY
RECORD AT KCAE COULD BE CHALLENGED TODAY (99F IN 2014),
CONSIDERING THE MAX TEMPERATURE YESTERDAY WAS 98F WITH THE RIDGE
POSITIONED FURTHER WEST THAN IT SHOULD BE TODAY. THE KAGS
RECORD WILL BE TOUGHER TO NEAR (101F IN 1957), BUT VALUES TODAY
COULD STILL FALL NEAR 2-5 DEGREES WITHIN THIS. WITH PWAT'S
REMAINING NEAR 1.90" MUCH OF THE WEEK, SURFACE DEWPOINTS SHOULD
STICK TOWARD THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, BRINGING WIDESPREAD
HEAT INDICES BETWEEN 100-105F EACH DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COUPLE SPOTS NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA (108F) COULD BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, BUT THIS WILL
DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW DEEP OF MIXING IS SEEN EACH DAY. OVERALL,
A ANOMALOUS PERIOD OF HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL PERSIST MUCH OF
THIS WEEK WITH AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT- RELATED ILLNESSES SO
BE SURE TO TAKE HEAT SAFETY PRECAUTIONS THIS WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 2. ACTIVE WEATHER AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES
POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND.
THERE REMAINS SOLID AGREEMENT ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT THE
UPPER RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY RETROGRADE THIS WEEKEND IN
RESPONSE TO A DEEP TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE EASTERN CONUS. AS
THIS OCCURS, A FRONT SHOULD NEAR THE AREA WITH ACCOMPANYING
SHORTWAVE ENERGY, BRINGING BACK THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEKEND. WITH THIS
SAID, TIMING DIFFERENCES REMAIN FOR THE FRONT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LATER PASSAGE ON SATURDAY. DUE TO THIS, TEMPERATURES WITH
THE CURRENT NBM RUN HAVE TRENDED WARMER SATURDAY (IN THE UPPER
90S) BEFORE COOLING TOWARD NORMAL ON SUNDAY. CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE PREDAWN
FOG AT FAVORED LOCATIONS.
CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BEFORE SOME POSSIBLE MVFR/IFR VSBYS AT FOG
PRONE AGS/OGB; PRIMARILY FOCUSED ON THE 10-12Z TIME FRAME SO
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR THIS POSSIBILITY OTHERWISE CONFIDENCE TOO
LOW AT OTHER TERMINALS TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. OVERALL, FOG
APPEARS LESS LIKELY WEDNESDAY MORNING COMPARED TO THIS PAST
MORNING (WHICH WAS PATCHY). WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY, ALTHOUGH REMAINING RELATIVELY LIGHT, AROUND 5KTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...EARLY MORNING RESTRICTIONS STILL
POSSIBLE DESPITE A DRIER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEK. INCREASED CHANCES
OF RESTRICTIONS OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF
CONVECTION WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...DH
AVIATION...42
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