819
FXUS62 KCAE 061046
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
646 AM EDT SUN SEP 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TODAY BRINGING
THE RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 12Z TAF
ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
SUNDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ON SUNDAY, BRINGING IMPACTS TO MUCH OF THE FA. A WEAK
SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE REGION,
SERVING AS A LIFTING MECHANISM FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTION. THIS WILL BE AIDED FURTHER BY THE PASSAGE OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE. THE LATEST SPC
OUTLOOK PLACES MUCH OF OUR CWA IN A SLIGHT (2/5) RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT AND
LARGE HAIL AS THE SECONDARY RISK. MODELED SOUNDINGS SHOW AMPLE
CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG AND AN INVERTED-V SIGNATURE
INDICATIVE OF THE DOWNBURST WIND THREAT. THE PRIMARY FAILURE
MODE WILL BE WHETHER SKIES ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT AND ALLOW THE
ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY WHICH WOULD ALSO INCREASE THE RISK OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS POTENTIAL IS
HIGHLIGHTED IN THE LATEST WPC ERO WHICH PUTS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE CWA IN A SLIGHT (2/4) RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, WITH A
MARGINAL ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH
AS YESTERDAY WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S IN THE PEE
DEE AND IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ELSEWHERE.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOTHER ROUND OF DIURNAL CONVECTION LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
EXPECTED THEN RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED WITH STRATUS AND FOG LATE
TONIGHT.
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO CALM WIND THROUGH SUNRISE THEN WINDS
GRADUALLY PICK UP FROM THE EAST TO AROUND 5-6 KNOTS AFTER 15Z.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND UPPER DISTURBANCE APPROACHING THE
REGION COMBINED WITH DIURNAL INSTABILITY AND A SOUTHWARD SINKING
COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE INCREASED CHANCES OF LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR TO TODAY, SOME
STORMS EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. WILL
CARRY A PROB30 GROUP FOR NOW GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT
TIMING AND LOCATION THAT CAN BE PINNED DOWN MORE WITH TIME. AS
THE FRONT SINKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT, LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DIURNAL STORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO
THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...23
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