566
FXUS62 KCAE 072348
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
748 PM EDT MON SEP 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
DRIER AIR IS LIKELY FOR TOMORROW, LEADING TO LOWER DEW POINTS
AND LIMITING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE CSRA. AVIATION
DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT HAS SLIPPED SOUTH OF THE AREA USHERING IN DRIER AIR.
EXPECT RELATIVELY QUICK RECOVERY WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE
AND STRENGTHENING RIDGING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS MOVING
BACK INTO THE AREA. WHILE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT INDICATE
THIS RIDGE WILL BE NEARLY AS STRONG AS LAST WEEK, EXPECT A
WARMING TREND MOST NOTABLE FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORING TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S, AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THIS
COUPLED WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PUSH HEAT
INDICES UP TOWARDS THE TRIPLE DIGITS ONCE AGAIN.
MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED TOMORROW WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATING A RELATIVELY STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT, KEEPING MUCH OF
THE AREA CAPPED, PREVENTING SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM DEVELOPING
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. WHILE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA,
GENERALLY DO NOT EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE UNTIL
WEDNESDAY WHEN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF IS PICKED UP BY THE DEVELOPING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME DIURNAL STORM CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, FAVORING THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BUT
IT IS NOT UNTIL A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST LEAD
TO HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS DRIER AIR REMAINS
OVER THE AREA.
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS SHOWN
ON SATELLITE LATE THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT, WHILE THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO DISSIPATE SOMEWHAT BY 02Z-03Z. RADAR DOES SHOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING INLAND ALONG THE SEA-BREEZE, STILL WELL EAST OF
THE CSRA AND SOUTHERN MIDLANDS SITES. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
TAKING PLACE, THOSE SHOULD ALSO DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. EVEN IF IT DID HOLD TOGETHER SOME, VFR WOULD STILL PREVAIL
WITH BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER AND ADDITIONAL BROKEN MID- LEVEL
CLOUDS, SO NO ISSUES EXPECTED. WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE,
CLOUDINESS, AND LIGHT WINDS, DO NOT EXPECT VISIBILITY ISSUES
OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. POSSIBLY BRIEF PATCH/SHALLOW
GROUND FOG AT AGS, BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE IN TAF AT
THIS TIME. WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LIGHT OVERNIGHT, THEN INCREASING TO BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS, WITH
A FEW GUSTS TO NEAR 15 KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY THROUGH MID-WEEEK BEFORE
DIURNAL STORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...73
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