809
FXUS62 KCAE 081753
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
153 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WEDNESDAY TRENDING DRIER WITH SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS STILL
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AVIATION DISCUSSION
UPDATED FOR 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON STORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
RELATIVELY COOLER AND DRIER TODAY WITH PWATS NEAR AN INCH
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO NEAR 1.4
INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN AREA. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK WHICH ALONG WITH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL LEAD TO A WARMER
CONDITIONS TOMORROW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BLENDED
GUIDANCE FAVORING HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE LOW 70S. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND MAY PUSH HEAT INDICES TO NEAR TRIPLE DIGITS BUT NOT
EXPECTING TO NEAR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA.
MOISTURE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK
AND WHILE RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG OVER THE FORECAST
AREA A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LIKELY
PULL GULF MOISTURE INLAND LEADING TO RISING PWATS AND CHANCES
FOR AFTERNOON STORMS. THIS MOISTURE INCREASE HAS TRENDED A BIT
LATER AS ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE PWATS FOR
MOST OF THE AREA ALONG WITH A STRONG WARM NOSE ALOFT WEDNESDAY
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP MOST OF THE AREA DRY. SCATTERED STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CAPPING INVERSION MAY INHIBIT CONVECTION AS
700MB TEMPS LIKELY AROUND 10C. SUFFICIENT WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE
THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH ENSEMBLE MEAN PWATS APPROACHING 150
PERCENT OF NORMAL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SCATTERED TO POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
FAVORING THE AFTERNOONS. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS LOOK GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE LEADING TO LIMITED CONCERN
FOR SEVERE STORMS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND A RELATIVELY DRIER
AIRMASS WILL GENERALLY PRECLUDE THE FORMATION OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE EASTERLY THROUGH THE DAY ON THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS, WITH SPEEDS UP AROUND
5-10 KT WITH A FEW HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. TONIGHT, WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND MAINLY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED.
INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME BROKEN
STRATUS BY MID-LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP TOWARD
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE EASTERN MIDLANDS, BUT WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT OF THE KOGB TAF UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE INCREASES.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRY THROUGH MID-WEEEK BEFORE
DIURNAL STORM CHANCES RETURN IN THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...JAQ
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