274
FXUS62 KCAE 092344
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
744 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS STRONGER OFFSHORE
RIDGING WITH LITTLE SIGN OF BREAKING DOWN LEADING TO INCREASING
CONFIDENCE IN CONTINUED RELATIVELY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. THE LOCATION OF THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT INCREASING
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WITH MAJORITY OF GEFS AND EC ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS INCREASING PWATS TO ABOVE 2 INCHES FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LIKELY PUSH DEW POINTS
BACK INTO THE 70S SO WHILE BLENDED GUIDANCE FAVORS HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S, HEAT INDICES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT NEAR THE
TRIPLE DIGITS. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME FORCING FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH WEAKNESSES IN THE RIDGE, WIDESPREAD
FORCING REMAINS UNLIKELY SO SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS, REMAINING ISOLATED
THURSDAY THEN SCATTERED EACH DAY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED WITH BIGGEST
THREATS BEING LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS AT THE TERMINALS TOWARDS DAYBREAK
INCREASING....
RADAR THIS EVENING SHOWS A FEW SEA BREEZE SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS, INCLUDING ONE SOUTHEAST OF OGB.
OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE NEXT TWENTY-FOUR HOURS
WILL BE FROM POTENTIAL LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. CONFIDENCE IN RESTRICTIONS IS INCREASING, ESPECIALLY
AT THE NORMALLY FOG PRONE OGB AND AGS. ANY LOW STRATUS SHOULD
LIFT AND TRANSITION TO SCT CUMULUS BY MIDDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. DIURNAL CONVECTION CHANCES RETURN ON
THURSDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT THE
TERMINALS EXCEPT AT OGB WHERE A PROB30 WAS ADDED.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND ALONG WITH A HIGHER PROBABILITY FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS
CONCERNS DUE TO HIGHER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...73/96
AVIATION...7/ND
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