155
FXUS62 KCAE 110016
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
816 PM EDT THU SEP 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MINIMAL CHANGE TO KEY MESSAGES. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
LITTLE HAS CHANGED TO THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GLOBAL ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO FAVOR RIDGING TO OUR EAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND WITH A STRONGER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FOR NEXT WEEK. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 2 INCHES. THIS SETUP TENDS TO GIVE THE
FORECAST AREA SCATTERED, DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS. CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE MAY BE A LITTLE HIGHER ON SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL
SHORTWAVE ENERGY SET TO RIDE UP OVER THE RIDGE INTO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO NOT BE
EXPECTED BUT THE BIGGEST THREATS BEING ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HEIGHT RISES EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD WORK
TO SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH JUST ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH HEAT INDICES APPROACHING THE TRIPLE DIGITS BUT
STILL COOLER THAN THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, WITH BRIEF RESTRICTIONS IN
VIS DOWN TO 2SM NOTED AT CAE WITH A PASSING SHOWER, BUT
PROBABILITIES FOR ANY CONTINUING IMPACTS THROUGH THE NEXT 2-3
HOURS AT ANY OF THE TERMINALS IS RATHER LOW AS THEY DIMINISH.
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT, THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO ADVECT
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. CHANCES ARE LOW FOR BRIEF RESTRICTIONS
EARLY FRIDAY DUE TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG, MAINLY NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN MIDLANDS AND OGB. PROBABILITIES FOR CEILING
RESTRICTIONS ACROSS GUIDANCE REMAIN LOW (20-40%), AND HAVE KEPT
OUT MENTION OF MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS. ANY PATCHY RESTRICTIONS
SHOULD CLEAR BY LATE MORNING (13-15Z) FRIDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS
TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR POTENTIAL RESTRICTIONS
WILL INCREASE WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY TO MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH GREATER COVERAGE FAVORED ACROSS THE CSRA FOR
THE AGS, DNL, AND AIK TERMINALS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE INTO THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH A HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR MORNING FOG/STRATUS CONCERNS DUE TO HIGHER
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...96
AVIATION...SF
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