521
FXUS62 KCAE 130544
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
144 AM EDT SUN SEP 13 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
UPDATED KEY MESSAGE 1. AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 06Z
TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A BACKDOOR
FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, WITH
A BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
CONVECTION FROM EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS DIMINISHED FOR THE MOST
PART, SHIFTING EASTWARD GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS SLOWLY DOING THE SAME AS THE 500 HPA TROUGH ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE APPALACHIANS. A SHARP
GRADIENT IN PWS IS NOTED TO OUR WEST, AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE FEATURE THAT IS
FORECAST TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN BUILDING TONIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. PERSISTENT TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO YIELD STRONG HEIGHT
RISES ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, RESULTING IN ONE OF THE
STRONGER 500 HPA RIDGES ON RECORD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (HEIGHTS
ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED NAEFS CLIMATOLOGY FOR SEVERAL DAYS). ON
THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THIS, A STOUT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
ROUND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH STRONG CONVERGENCE
BETWEEN THE BACKSIDE OF THIS AND THE TRAILING RIDGE. THIS
CONVERGENCE IS FORECAST TO USHER IN A SEASONALLY STRONG SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM INTO THE NORTHEAST, RIDGING DOWN THROUGH
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS
SURFACE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MAKES ITS WAY TOWARDS US VIA
BACKDOOR FRONT ON MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY, WITH NEAR
NORMAL HIGHS & BELOW NORMAL DEWPOINTS AND PWS BEHIND IT. MONDAY
WILL BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN
THE MID 90S. BUT TUES/WED/THUR SHOULD FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S, DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S DURING THE AFTERNOONS
(MAYBE EVEN UPPER 50S!), AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 60S.
OVERALL, COMPARED TO OUR WEATHER IN RECENT WEEKS, IT LOOKS
FAIRLY NICE FOR SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK. BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK
AND NEXT WEEKEND, MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN AND INCREASE PRECIP
CHANCES ALONG WITH IT.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ANOTHER ROUND OF MORNING STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED
TODAY.
SHOWERS HAVE MOVED EAST OF THE TAF SITES AND NO REDEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG CAN BE
EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL TAF SITES RECEIVED AT LEAST
SOME RAIN WHICH WILL HELP CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG
BUT LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND WILL MAKE WIDESPREAD FOG LESS LIKELY. THAT SAID,
CEILINGS LOOK TO BE MOST LIKELY TO BRING RESTRICTIONS WITH IFR
LIKELY AND LIFR POSSIBLE.
MORNING RESTRICTIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH 14-16Z TODAY BEFORE
VFR RETURNS WITH 5-8 KT WINDS OUT OF THE WEST. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. THE MOST LIKELY SITE TO
RECEIVE RAINFALL WOULD BE OGB SINCE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER TO
THE EAST.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN UNLIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
BUT THERE WILL STILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS PERSISTS AT LEAST FOR EARLY THIS WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...PL
AVIATION...CJR
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