620
FXUS62 KCAE 141726
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
126 PM EDT MON SEP 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT
USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE
TO END OF THIS WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END OF THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED TODAY, WITH A
BACKDOOR FRONT USHERING IN DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR THROUGH
THE MIDDLE TO END OF THIS WEEK.
THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE PATTERN SET TO UNFOLD. STRONG 500 HPA
RIDGING IS BUILDING INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH HEIGHTS
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR BY TUES/WED, WHICH IS
CONSISTENT WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE. A STRONG SURFACE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHEASTERN US AND MID-ATLANTIC OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, YIELDING A BACKDOOR FRONT PROGGED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. PERSISTENT SURFACE RIDGING IS
FORECAST TO HANG AROUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK, WITH
SEASONALLY LOW PW AIR AND VERY PLEASANT AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS
THROUGH FRIDAY. COMBINE THIS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE DIRECTLY
BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE AND WE ARE LOOKING AT A NICE WEEK ACROSS
THE AREA. TODAY WILL BE THE LAST REALLY HOT DAY AS HEIGHTS RISE
& WE EXPERIENCE SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE
BACKDOOR FRONT, WITH HIGHS FORECAST IN THE MID 90S. BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90
TUES/WED/THUR, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 60S
GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. THIS IS NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR, A NICE REPRIEVE FROM WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST
FEW WEEKS. BY LATE WEEK, AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
UNDERCUT THE STRONG RIDGE AND MOVE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO YIELD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH, SO
PRECIP CHANCES LOOK LOW THROUGH AT LEAST THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY THE
WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTH
SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN AND
INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SEASONALLY HIGH PW AIR WILL
RETURN WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER-60S TO
LOW-70S. AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS WEEKEND, LOWS IN THE LOW 70S
AND HIGHS MAY REACH THE MID 90S WITH FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION (15-30%) SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BUT THE
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD APPEARS EARLY NEXT WEEK (30-50%).
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.
DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHING THROUGH THE AREA THIS
EVENING, BRINGING AN AIRMASS WITH LOWER MOISTURE TO THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY. MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, MAINLY REMAINING ABOVE 5KFT. WINDS
TURNING MORE NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY AS THE FRONT SAGS THROUGH.
AVERAGE SPEEDS BETWEEN 5-10 KNOTS, BUT CAN NOT RULE OUT A FEW
GUSTS UP TO 15 KNOTS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. ALTHOUGH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD, GUIDANCE
DOES SHOW AN INDICATION OF MVFR CEILING DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT. WITH THE DRIER AIR PUSHING IN, CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW IS
LOWER THAN USUAL FOR THIS. HOWEVER LOW-LEVEL WINDS TOWARDS
MORNING TO SHIFT TO MORE EASTERLY, SO NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE
QUESTION THAT SOME WEAK UPSLOPE COULD STILL BRING A NARROW BAND
OF MOISTURE INLAND TOWARDS TUESDAY MORNING. FOR NOW KEPT VFR
CEILINGS, WITH BROKEN CLOUDS COMING IN AROUND 5KFT TOWARDS 10Z.
INCLUDED MENTION OF SCATTERED 2KFT TO AT LEAST HINT AT SOME
LOWER CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...NS
AVIATION...73
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