933
FXUS62 KCAE 160548
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
148 AM EDT WED SEP 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK
RATHER THAN THE WEEKEND. AVIATION UPDATED FOR 06Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES INTO LATE IN WEEK.
- 2. INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR THE END OF
THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR CONTINUES INTO
LATE IN WEEK.
AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK BEFORE AN UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST. MEANWHILE, AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MARCH TOWARD THE GULF COAST STATES,
USHERING IN A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND DRIER AIR. THE 850 MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE
AROUND 15C OR SO, WHICH TRANSLATES TO SURFACE TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 60F, WITH SOME
SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S THIS AFTERNOON. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR TOMORROW, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY WARMER AS
THE 850 MB TEMPS INCH UPWARD. ALL IN ALL, SEASONABLE TEMPS CAN
BE EXPECTED TOMORROW ONCE AGAIN WHILE RELATIVELY DRY AIR REMAINS
IN PLACE.
KEY MESSAGE 2: INCREASING MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES RETURN FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/INVERTED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD FOR THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEK. AS IT DOES,
MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CHANGE FROM
PREVIOUS FORECASTS IS THAT GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SOONER
ARRIVAL OF RAIN CHANCES TO THE AREA. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO ARRIVE AT THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
RATHER THAN THE WEEKEND. RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS INCREASED MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA. A RELATIVE
LULL IN COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. AFTER A FAIRLY WARM FRIDAY,
TEMPS DROP BACK TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS GENERALLY EXPECTED THROUGH THE 24HR FORECAST
PERIOD.
DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION IN PLACE. WHILE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR
VFR CONDITIONS, A BRIEF PERIOD OF VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
REMAINS POSSIBLE AT FOG PRONE AGS OR OGB. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST
IN RESTRICTIONS AT AGS SO HAVE INCLUDED IT IN A TEMPO GROUP.
OTHERWISE, EXPECT A FEW CLOUDS AROUND 5KFT POSSIBLE THIS MORNING
BUT MOSTLY CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING,
INCREASING OUT OF THE EAST AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...RAIN AND RESTRICTIONS UNLIKELY FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS WEEKEND.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...29
AVIATION...96
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