847
FXUS62 KCAE 221822
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
222 PM EDT TUE SEP 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 18Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- 2. COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH PERIODS
OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION TODAY ALONG A LINGERING
STATIONARY BOUNDARY, CONTINUING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE
COAST LATER TODAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE MIDWEST. BROADER SYNOPTIC FORCING WILL
YIELD HIGHER COVERAGE IN POPS, AS A SURFACE FRONT PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE MIDLANDS TUESDAY NIGHT SUPPORTS WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS
MUCAPE VALUES APPROACH 2000-3000 J/KG WITH PWATS OF 1.7-2",
SUPPORTING A LOCALIZED THREAT FOR WET MICROBURSTS AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. HOWEVER, WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL KEEP THE OVERALL
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK LIMITED. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 90S
FOR ONE LAST TIME (HOPEFULLY).
KEY MESSAGE 2: COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ONWARD, WITH
PERIODS OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGING ON HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PUSHING THE WEDGE FRONT THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ONGOING SHOWERS AND CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING, ESPECIALLY
WITH COLD ADVECTION OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE. THERE REMAINS
SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR SOUTH THE WEDGE FRONT WILL
GO, AND IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT
SETTING UP SOMEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALL SAID, THE TEMPERATURE DROP OF 10 TO 15+ DEGREES
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY NOTICEABLE NORTH OF
THE FRONT. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THIS AIRMASS CHANGE. BLENDED GUIDANCE STRUGGLES IN
THESE SCENARIOS, SO WE HAVE BEEN USING THE NAM/GFS MODELS TO
BETTER CAPTURE THE EXPECTED TEMPERATURES LATE THIS WEEK.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP SUGGESTS THURSDAY COULD BE OUR
COOLEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WITH MOST EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN THE LOW TO UPPER 70S. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL WORK TO SCOUR
OUT THE WEDGE THROUGH SOME PORTION OF THE DAY, WITH DRIER NORTHWEST
FLOW EVENTUALLY MOVING IN. HIGHS WILL REBOUND A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL
AS PRECIP AND CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY REACH THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S. OVERALL, THIS SHOULD
PROVIDE OUR FIRST REAL TASTE OF FALL WITH A REFRESHING CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURES ARRIVING JUST AS ASTRONOMICAL AUTUMN OFFICIALLY BEGINS
LATER TODAY!
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CEILING RESTRICTIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
WHILE THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA AND
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD BY LATE TONIGHT, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE HAVE DEVELOPED (EARLIER THAN FORECAST BY
GUIDANCE AGAIN) ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH AGS AND DNL IN THE PAST HOUR
HAVE ALREADY PRODUCED LOWERED VIS DOWN TO 2 1/2SM AND GUSTS UP
TO 30KT. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS THROUGH ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
00Z, WITH TEMPOS NOW THROUGH 22-23Z FOR TSRA. THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN AND BECOME STEADY -RA WITH LATE THIS
EVENING INTO VERY EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE WEDGE FRONT
APPROACHES. GUIDANCE REMAINS CONSISTENT INTO DEVELOPING CEILING
RESTRICTIONS WITH A STRATUS DECK FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, GENERALLY
WITH MVFR CEILINGS STARTING AROUND 03-05Z, THEN IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING BY 06Z-08Z. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS REGARDING HOW
FAR SOUTH THE WEDGE WILL SETTLE IN BY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT
IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS MOST
OF THE MIDLANDS, WHILE AREAS FARTHER SOUTH AT AGS, DNL AND OGB
ARE MORE LIKELY TO SEE CEILINGS LIFT INTO MVFR CONDITIONS BY
LATE MORNING.
AS FOR WINDS, EASTERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 5-8 KTS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OUTSIDE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND SHIFT TO NORTHEASTERLY LATE
THIS EVENING, THEN PICK UP SLIGHTLY TO 5-10 KT LIKELY AFTER 06Z
AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE AREA.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS AND
CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WEDGE CONDITIONS SETTLE ACROSS THE REGION. DRIER CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BEGINNING FRIDAY.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7
AVIATION...SF
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