092
FXUS62 KCAE 240041
AFDCAE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
841 PM EDT WED SEP 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AVIATION DISCUSSION UPDATED FOR 00Z TAFS.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TODAY AND THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY TODAY AND
THURSDAY.
CLOUDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE WEDGE FULLY
OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE CWA HAVE DIPPED INTO THE LOW 60S AND SHOULD REMAIN
THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY TOMORROW. BREEZY WINDS HAVE STARTED TO
BECOME A BIT GUSTIER AT TIMES AS BETTER FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPS AND
THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS. AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER EAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFF THE COAST, NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING COLD AIR
ADVECTION, WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY ERODE THE WEDGE THROUGH SOME
PORTION OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY. WITH THAT BEING SAID, MODELS TEND
TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION OF CAD POORLY AND I WOULD EXPECTED AT
LEAST THE START OF FRIDAY TO REMAIN COOL AND CLOUDY. HIGHS WILL
THEN SLOWLY REBOUND CLOSER TO NORMAL AS PRECIP AND CLOUD-FREE
CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 50S, MAKING IT FEEL
QUITE PLEASANT OUT THERE FOR THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE WARMING
TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY RISING BACK TO AROUND NORMAL AS MORE HUMID AIR
RETURNS.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
IFR/MVFR RESTRICTIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE 24 HOUR
TAF PERIOD.
WEDGE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND TOMORROW. MVFR
CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO IFR BY 06Z TONIGHT AT ALL TAF SITES. STEADY
NORTH-NORTHEAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS UP TO 15-20 KTS.
SHOWERS WILL PICK UP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH
SWINGS OVERHEAD. MODERATE RAINFALL WILL OCCASIONALLY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES THROUGH 18Z WHEN THE ACTIVITY PUSHES EAST. THE
RAINFALL AND NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE THE WEDGE
CONDITIONS MAKING IFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE END OF THE
TAF PERIOD, BUT FOR NOW WE HAVE NOTED A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TO
LOW MVFR AROUND 20 TO 22Z THURSDAY.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
BEGINNING FRIDAY MORNING, BUT LOW CEILINGS MAY PERSIST LONGER
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY
LATE FRIDAY OR EARLIER.
CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
SC...NONE.
GA...NONE.
DISCUSSION...7/ND
AVIATION...CJR
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